Leading up to the mile and aquarter Kentucky Derby, the$64,000 question always is, “whocan get the distance?” In the weeksleading up to this year’s Derby onMay 5, we’ll look at the pedigrees oftop contenders to determine whohas the stamina, and who doesn’t,to win the roses.
Is jockey Chris McCarron kicking himself right now? Or does he know something the rest of us don’t?
McCarron, a Hall of Famer, has won the Kentucky Derby with Alysheba and Go for Gin, and missed by a nose with Cavonnier. You can bet he’d love to win another, but so far this year he’s ridden, then abandoned, two top Derby contenders: Dollar Bill and Millennium Wind, runaway winner of last Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes under Laffit Pincay Jr.
Now McCarron doesn’t have a mount for the Derby.
Why? Because after riding Dollar Bill to win the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds by 2½ lengths in February, McCarron took off Dollar Bill to ride against him aboard Millennium Wind in the Louisiana Derby in March.
That looked like a smart decision when Millennium Wind finished second in the Louisiana Derby while Dollar Bill was fourth after a very rough trip.
But then McCarron passed up the mount on Millennium Wind in the Blue Grass, instead staying in California to ride Bienamado in the San Juan Capistrano.
Bienamado, a top candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Turf in October, won like he was supposed to, and McCarron has a long friendship with his trainer and owners.
Still, why would he take off a top Derby candidate like Millennium Wind in his final Derby prep? Especially since Millennium Wind is trained by California-based David Hofmans, whose colt Touch Gold McCarron rode to upset Silver Charm in the 1997 Belmont Stakes.
The logical explanation is that McCarron didn’t think Millennium Wind (or Dollar Bill for that matter) would win the Derby. Who are we to disagree?
For most of the spring, Millennium Wind has been battling bad feet and a fungus infection. Who would imagine he’d recover to win the Blue Grass by 51/4 lengths. Obviously not McCarron.
Millennium Wind, who cost $1.2 million as a yearling, has done little wrong in his brief career.
After easily breaking his maiden first out at Hollywood in November, he ran second in the Hollywood Futurity, beaten just a length by Derby favorite Point Given. Then he won the Santa Catalina at Santa Anita before finishing second in the Louisiana Derby and winning the Blue Grass.
Based on his pedigree, you can make a case for Millennium Wind in the Run for the Roses.
His sire, Cryptoclearance, won the Florida Derby and Everglades in 1987 with strong late runs, ran fourth in the Derby, third in the Preakness and second in the Belmont Stakes. As an older horse he won the Hawthorne Gold Cup and Widener Handicap, both at a mile and a quarter.
A son of Fappiano, from the Mr. Prospector-Raise a Native sire line, out of a mare by Hoist the Flag, Cryptoclearance is a top sire himself. His best son, champion Victory Gallop, was second in the Derby and Preakness, won the ’98 Belmont to deny Real Quiet the Triple Crown, and won the Stephen Foster and Whitney the following year. Cryptoclearance also sired Crypto Star, who won the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys in ’97.
Millennium Wind, out of the Drone mare Bali Babe, is a half-brother to Charismatic, the former claimer who won the Lexington, Derby and Preakness two years ago before finishing third in the Belmont on a broken leg.
This female family has produced many outstanding runners, including champion Deputy Minister, Grade 1 stakes winner Chief Honcho, Alabama winner Versailles Treaty, Travers winner General Assembly, who ran second in the ’79 Derby, and Exclusive Native, sire of Triple Crown winner Affirmed and Derby winner Genuine Risk.
But based on his dosage numbers, Millennium Wind is a big question mark at a mile and a quarter. His dosage profile, 12-15-10-0-1, leans toward speed over stamina, and his dosage index, 5.33, is over the Derby guideline figure of 4.00.
The biggest knock on Millennium Wind is the sorry history, dating back 20 years, of horses who won the Blue Grass in front-running fashion, then were soundly beaten in the Derby.