1. In today’s Post I wrote this about how, perhaps, being terrible will help the Mets do what is necessary without distraction: Start building a better product for the future. I still think the Mets are under the belief that they are just a piece of two away from being a strong organization again. And that is just not true. The perception around baseball is that every team in the NL East has better prime-aged players than the Mets and also has a better farm system.
Believing that they were just one piece away is how they signed Francisco Rodriguez and Jason Bay, thinking that fixing the bullpen or adding power was an antidote rather than a dart throw.
Now I sense that the Mets think that the cure-all is the big chunk of money that is coming off the books after this season. First, you would have to believe that a troubled ownership is willing to re-invest that money on players, which certainly is no sure thing. Second, in case you haven’t noticed, most teams are signing up their best youngsters – especially pitchers – to long-term contracts. The free-agent market is not going to be attractive unless you want to be big rates for a first baseman such as Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. Maybe financial flexibility will allow the Mets to have the wherewithal to acquire expensive players in trades and, for that, a team still has to have a strong farm system. The Mets’ feeder system is viewed around the sport as in the bottom third of organizations. Even if it is a little better than that, the Mets are not really at the moment in their history where they should be thinking of trading from that system for older, expensive pieces.
What they should be thinking about is how to stock the system with as much talent as possible. That generally comes from the draft and international signing period, and Mets ownership has pledged that it will spend what is necessary to procure talent in those areas regardless of the current financial plight of the Wilpons.
But the Mets can speed up the rebuilding process by making wise trades. Obviously, they would love to find places to send Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez. Even if it means eating some of the salary – money they are budgeted for anyway – that would be worth it if they could add prospects to the system. If Beltran continues to hit, I think some AL team in need of a hitter in the second half will take a shot with him; remember that multiple teams were after Manny Ramirez last July with all of his baggage. K-Rod is trickier because of that vesting option: If he finishes 55 games, he is guaranteed $17.5 million in 2012 and no team wants to pay that, notably the Mets.
That is another fringe benefit of being lousy: It artificially keeps a closer from appearing as often. At this moment, K-Rod has four games finished in 17 games, which has him on pace for 38 games finished. If that number remains low into July, he would be easier to trade. You see already that teams with expectations such as the Cardinals and White Sox are trying to figure out their closer situation.
2. But we all know the big question is about what the Mets will do with the left side of their infield. Much of the discussion has been about Jose Reyes since he is a free agent. In this space and my column, I have put the chances of the Mets re-signing Reyes at unlikely and, therefore, they should look to turn him into a prospect haul in July. I just didn’t see this current ownership approving a huge outlay to keep Reyes and the current front office, headed by Sandy Alderson, puts such a high value on on-base percentage – not a Reyes strength – so I do not anticipate Alderson pushing hard to ask ownership to spend on Reyes.
In addition, with Reyes’ poor at-bats with runners in scoring position, Alderson is getting a taste for Reyes’ dubious baseball IQ, which should grow into a greater factor as some of his speed dissolves with age and he has to think his way through more on-field issues.
However, the feeling has been that a strong season by Reyes would push him toward the payday (seven years at $142 million) that Carl Crawford received last offseason from the Red Sox; especially because Reyes plays a more premium position than Crawford, is a year younger and hits from both sides of the plate. However, if Crawford’s woeful start is a preview of what is to come, you could imagine more teams around the sport being hesitant to give a speed-based player the kind of contract so often associated with power hitters. So if Reyes’ asking price falls more into the five years at $90 million to six years at $108 million range, perhaps the Mets would be more willing to play there. Of course, so would many other clubs.
As for Wright, the feeling is that even if the Mets held a full-fledged fire sale they would not include Wright because he is viewed as the face of the franchise and still is in his prime on a reasonable contract. But, to me, the contract is something the Mets have to think about. Wright is signed through 2013 if the Mets – as you would expect – pick up his $16 million option. He would turn 31 that offseason as the Mets will have to consider a new long-term deal for him. And so do the Mets imagine that they will want to sign another contract of five or more years with Wright at that point? Maybe. But it is no layup.
Wright is a very good player. But he almost certainly cannot be the best player on a team that expects to win championships. He is more of the high-end complementary type. That has great value. But is it the type of value you want to pay big dollars to into a player’s late-30s?
We are not talking about trading Wright as part of a salary dump here. But the Mets have to be open to the possibility that a team in contention – maybe a Colorado or Oakland – would be willing to pay $1.25 for $1 worth of talent. If that is presented to the Mets then they have to think about it.
Look, the Mets are dumped on pretty regularly now. But from 2006-08, they were one of the majors’ best teams. You know the shorthand for those years; they nearly made it to the World Series in 2006 and fell apart in the end late in 2007 and 2008 as lack of organizational depth undermined them. Since then, however, as the Mets have tried to recapture the best of that group they have been a huge failure. At this moment, they have to close the book on that period, which is easier since Pedro Martinez and Carlos Delgado are gone, and Beltran and Reyes are in their walk years. The total dynamite blast would come if the Mets dealt Wright. And they have to, at the least, consider that.
3. With the Mets going bad there will be call to get the best of their farm system here. And I would not be surprised if Reese Havens could ever stay healthy or Jordany Valdespin could display better on-field concentration if they made it to the majors at some point to play second base. Because the Mets think those guys have the talent to perhaps take the job for a period of time.
But Alderson is determined not to rush players just for the sake of putting something on display that might excite the disillusioned fans at Citi Field. When I asked yesterday, Mets officials told me that the plan is not to bring Jenrry Mejia to the majors before September. And while the Mets expect to move Matt Harvey from the Florida State League to Double-A Binghamton when the weather gets wrong, they do not expect to move him further because this is just his first full professional season.