The first season of “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes” will conclude Friday night in Australia. UFC fans in the United Kingdom and Down Under got their first taste of “TUF” and ratings were solid.
But that’s not why this blog exists. This is all about who is going to win and why. It’s about turning these 10 fights at UFC on FX 6 into a profit.
Of course, it won’t be easy. Like any finale of “The Ultimate Fighter” the performance of guys secluded in the house for six weeks are hard to predict. Some of them get a lot better after a full training camp for the finals. Some not so much. In this case, it didn’t air on television in the United States, making it even harder to predict.
Luckily, there are some UFC veterans on the card to balance everything out.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m.)
Ross Pearson (-105) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-115)
Robert Whittaker (-185) vs. Brad Scott (+160)
Colin Fletcher (-120) vs. Norman Parke (+100)
Hector Lombard (-210) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+175)
PRELIMS (Fuel TV, 6 p.m.)
Chad Mendes (-1300) vs. Yaotzin Meza (+700)
Igor Pokrajac (-360) vs. Joey Beltran (+270)
Mike Pierce (-325) vs. Seth Baczynski (+250)
Ben Alloway (-195) vs. Manuel Rodriguez (+160)
Mike Wilkinson (-205) vs. Ben Loughnane (+165)
Cody Donovan (-115) vs. Nick Penner (-115)
There was a time when both Pearson and Sotiropoulos were viewed as top contenders for the UFC lightweight title. December 2012 is not that time. Sotiropoulos has lost two straight and Pearson has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights.
Both are specialists. Pearson, a Brit, is a very good kickboxer and Sotiropoulos, from Australia, is an exceptional grappler. The question is whether Sotiropoulos will be able to take Pearson down. He wasn’t able to with Dennis Siver. Pearson’s takedown defense isn’t as good as Siver’s and I think Sotiropoulos will eventually get this to the ground and win by submission. I’d be fairly confident with a straight bet on Sotiropoulos.
The easiest thing to do with Whittaker-Scott and Fletcher-Parke is to stay away from them. Both are close lines and dangerous. Whittaker-Scott is the welterweight “TUF” final and Fletcher and Parke are fighting for the lightweight contract.
Lombard-Palhares isn’t getting talked about, but that has the potential to be an awesome fight. I’m stunned Lombard is such a heavy favorite. Palhares is a bad dude on the ground and Lombard was so lackluster against Tim Boetsch in his UFC debut. Take Palhares and the upset.
Let’s talk a little parlay now. I love Mendes even though the line is insane. Pierce and Pokrajac are pretty close to locks, too. If you’re looking for a fourth fighter to fill things out, take a long look at Wilkinson. He got knocked off the show due to injury in training after a first-round submission win.
BEST BETS
Sotiropoulos over Pearson
Palhares over Lombard
Parlay: Mendes, Pokrajac, Pierce, Wilkinson
LOOKING BACK
Why was I so confident in Nam Phan last week at UFC on FOX 5 against Dennis Siver? No idea. You would think my late-night encounter with Siver at the Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas would have made me a bigger fan of the German kickboxer. He destroyed Phan. I won’t be betting against him any time soon.
Jeremy Stephens and Mike Easton busted our parlay from last week, too. As good as Alexander Gustafsson, Rory MacDonald and Scott Jorgensen looked, it didn’t matter. UFC on FOX 5 was a total failure.
RECORDS
Straight bets: 6-12
Parlays: 4-6