North Carol🐽ina was the preseason favorite. That soon switched to ꧒Kentucky, which flipped to Michigan State, then Kansas, which turned to Oklahoma, and back to North Carolina. Monday’s new No. 1 — the sixth different No. 1 in the Associated Press poll in 13 weeks — should be Villanova, a team many will pick to fail to advance past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Getting dizzy yet? Welcome to this college b🎀asketball season, where there is no favorite. Just a number of flawed teams that could get hot in March, but could also get upset early.
Six ranked teams lost Saturday, including No. 1 Oklahoma, No. 2 North Carolina and No. 8 Texas A&M. It was just the seventh time No. 1 and No. 2 lost to unranked opponents on the same day in college basketball history, according to ESPN Stats & Info. No🙈. 21 Wichita State was beginning to gather steam as a potential sleeper, now that point guard Fred VanVleet is healthy, and on Satur🌠day the Shockers, winners of 12 in a row, fell to 14-11 Illinois State.
I installed North Carolina as my overall top seed the last few weeks after how well the Tar Heels had played since December. They may have been a product of a soft schedule, after losing on the road to Louisville an🧸d Notre Dame this week. Kansas, lacking a true go-to guy, may not even be the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma relies too much on the perimeter. Maryland🧔 is inconsistent.
Duke isn’t෴🔯 Duke. Michigan State doesn’t feature enough high-end talent.
Two teams that many would have picked to reach the Final Four in Houston — Louis🔯ville and S♊MU — are ineligible for the postseason.
If you had to pick one team to win it all at th🔯is moment, my pick would be Villanova. Yes, the same Wildcats team that has failed to make it out of the opening weekend of the tournament the last two years. This team is different, not nearly as reliant on the 3-pointer, deeper, better defensively, and able to handle bigger teams with two quality bigs in Daniel Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds.
Based on this season, though, that should change — perhaps by the Wildcat🌊s’ next game, Tuesday at DePaul. It’s been that kind of season, which should make March live up to its Madness moniker.
Cardinal Rule
The NCAA model for punishment needs to be changed. Yet again, this time at Louisville, a bunch of student-athletes who had nothing to do with a scandal are paying the price. We’re seeing it at SMU, at Missouri, at Syracuse last year, and now in Rick Pitino’s program. The Cardinals opted to impose a postseason ban on themselves rather than wait for the NCAA hammer to come down on the recruiting fiasco that involved a former assistant coach paying dancers to strip💛 and have sex with recruits and players in an on-campus dorm.
Louisville acted now, thinking this would satisfy the NCAA. But by doing so, they punish their kids who fought so hard this year to get to thi🐎s point, a likely top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, if not higher. And, worst of all, graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, who came to Lo🐼uisville to finally play in an NCAA tournament, get the short end of the stick.
The people responsible for these scandals should be the ones punished, right? Until th꧑at happens, and I’m not holding my breath, kids will be the ones paying for the adults’ mistakes.
Hope for St. John’s
Consider this a public ser🐲vice announcement to impatient fans of dormant programs with new coaches, the St. John’s and Auburns of the world.
Rebuilding takes time. It takes losing. It takes patience. Frank Martin and South Carolina are the best example. In his first three seasons, the Gamecocks were a combi🐲ned 45-54 overall and 15-39 in the SEC, never finishing higher than 11th. B꧙ut there was gradual improvement, and now there is this monster season in Columbia, a national ranking, a 20-3 record and surely their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2004.
There’s no guarantee this will happen in Queens with Chris Mullin or Auburn with Bruce Pearl, but it also shows how hard it is to turn around﷽ a program. However, if it happens, you get the kind of season South Carolina is enjoying that m💦akes all the losing worth it.
Game of the Week
No. 14 West Virginia at No. 7 Kansas
Tuesday, 7 p.m.
Kansas’ ridicul🔯ous streak of 11 straight Big 12 regular-season crow🐬ns is in jeopardy. A loss here, and the run may really be ending. West Virginia has already beaten the Jayhawks once, and is all alone at the top of the powerhouse conference after a huge week, beating No. 13 Iowa State and No. 15 Baylor. Of course, winning at Allen Fieldhouse is no easy task. In 13 seasons, Kansas coach Bill Self is 202-9 there. Only five Big 12 teams have left victorious.
Stock Watch: Up
Seton Hall
They are preparing to party like it’s 2006 — the last time Seton Hall made the NCAA Tournament — in South Orange. Winners of four straight, the surging Pirates, all alone in tᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚhird place in the Big East, could find themselves in the top 25 Monday. They have a deep and talented roster with a number of scoring options, but defense is what makes coach Kevin Willard’s team go. Opponents shoot just 39.7 percent from the field, the 34th-lowest clip in the nation.
Archie Miller
He can basically write his ow🌳n check at his next job. Yet again, he has Dayton, ranked 24th in the country and looking dangerous as March approaches, tied with VCU atop the Atlantic-10. The Flyers are winners of seven straight and have survived ♌the suspension of star Dyshawn Pierre for the first 12 games.
Down
Providence
Scoring depth matters. The Friars simply don’t have it. That’s why they have struggled so much lately, dropping three of four. Ben Bentil’s ankle injury has proven coach Ed Cooley’s team depends too much on Kris Dunn and Bentil, a sophomore forward. A consistent third scorer is desperately needed, and right now, that player just isn’t on the roster. Sophomore forward Rodney Bullock, who is supposed to have🅠 that role, is averaging just eight po✃ints over his last four games, not nearly good enough considering Bentil has been severely limited.
UCLA
It wasn’t so long ago UCLA was not only considered an NCAA Tournament lock, but a poten✃tial Final Four sleeper. The Bruins had wins over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Arizona, and featured a deep and talented roster. But Steve Alford and Co. may not even reach the NIT at this pace, as close to the Pac-12 cellar as the penthouse, losers of three of their last four games. The most glaring pockmark on the résumé: Two losses to rival USC by an average of 16.5 points. That’s only supposed to happen in football.
Super 16
A pr﷽ediction of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (l꧋isted in order): Seedings
1. Villanova, Maryland, Oklahoma, Michigan State
2. North Carolina, Kansas, Xavier, Iowa
3. Virginia, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oregon
4. Wichita State, Dayton, South Carolina, Purdue