Boom or bust, that is the nature of Week 14 in the NFL, and especially in fantasy football. This weekඣ stacks up as one of the most difficult of the 2016 season because virtually none of the stud players are in good positions, outside of David Johnson, but he is matchup-proof at t🍌his point anyway. All other regular fantasy contributors will have to overcome some degree of adversity in order to produce.
If you have a hot take on a QB, TE, K or D/ST this week, I strongly recommend you play them. The ownership projections at each of those positions are as spread out as we’ve seen all season — 💛meaning you are going to be able to lock in a good player at low ownership at all the single-player positions.
Running back and wi✅de receiver are a little different, as there are clear standouts. But there are enough under-the-radar options to give us a distinct advantage. These are th🥀e weeks in which we look back at the winning GPP lineups and realize they were garbage lineups that took home a lot of money this week.
In cash games, we need to stay the course: Aim for our two-times and 2.5-times return on salary at FanDuel and DraftKings alike, and hit our targets. Studs are going to fail and gimmick𒀰 players are going to rack up points this week. Though we know this will be the case, it cannot distract us from what we do or how we do it. The process wins out time after time, and even in poor conditions we need ꦉto stay true in order to come out ahead.
I have a couple of games I have strong reads on, but I will differ from the crowd — idea😼🌞lly those will be the key to Fantasy Alarm Nation being at the top of all contests this week.
Reꦗmember, if you want to play against me, Ted Schuster, Ray Flowers, Howard Bender or any of the other Fantasy Alarm mouth breathers, you have two ways of doing that this week.
First, FanDuel is offering in which you can double your money and have a chance at winning a f𒊎ree month of the award-winning DFS P🐼laybook PRO.
♈Second, FantasyAces is the place to be if you want to stay away from the sharks and just have fun and win some money in DFS. They are tired of me cleaning up over there and are offering a con𝐆test for folks to come out and . I doubt that you can to be honest but if you’d like to try.
And now,
QB, Russell Wilson, Seahawks, at Packers
FanDuel: $7,900
DraftKings: $6,600
FantasyAces: $6,750
Breakdown: You are going to see that I really like the Seattle-Green Bay game for fantasy purposes. Wilson is the 12th cheapest QB this week on FD and pro🦩vides passing and rushing ability. There are some weather concerns for this game, however, so be sure to check Sunday for forecast updates.
QB, Andrew Luck, Colts, vs. Texans
FD: $8,200
DK: $6,900
FA: $6,900
Breakdown:
QB, Eli Manning, Giants, vs. Cowboys
FD: $7,700
DK: $5,500
FA: $6,300
Breakdown:
QB, Andy Dalton, Bengals, at Browns
FD: $7,700
DK: $6,100
FA: $6,700
Breakdown:
QB, Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, vs. Saints
FD: $8,200
DK: $6,700
FA: $6,800
Breakdown:
RB, David Johnson, Cardinals, at Dolphins
FD: $9,700
DK: $9,800
FA: $6,800
Breakdown: By far the best play 🔴of the entire week. All of my cash game lineups will be built around D.J. no matter what.
RB, Jeremy Hill, Bengals, at Browns
FD: $6,900
DK: $5,800
FA: $5,500
Breakdown:
RB, LeSean McCoy, Bills, vs. Steelers
FD: $8,300
DK: $8,200
FA: $5,800
Breakdown:
RB, Matt Forte, Jets, at 49ers
FD: $7,700
DK: $6,800
FA: $5,200
Breakdown: With an inexperienced QB starting and a matchup against one of the worst all-time defen൲ses against the run, we can expect a lot of Matt Forte.
RB, DeMarco Murray, Titans, vs. Broncos
FD: $7,900
DK: $7,000
FA: $5,750
Breakdown:
RB, Robert Kelley, Redskins, at Eagles
FD: $5,900
DK: $4,200
FA: $4,600
Breakdown:
RB, Devonta Freeman, Falcons, at Rams
FD: $7,500
DK: $6,100
FA: $5,400
Breakdown:
RB, Lamar Miller, Texans, at Colts
FD: $7,200
DK: $5,100
FA: $5,100
Breakdown: Miller is a GPP-only play because of an unsure ๊usage rate. Though he has been banged up lately, the matchup is too great to ignore him completely. The Colts give up the sixth-most rushing yards per atte🦩mpt this season. Indy also has the worst-graded defense against the run according to Pro football Focus, and they will be without LB D’Qwell Jackson, who has been suspended for the next four games.
WR, Mike Evans, Buccaneers, vs. Saints
FD: $8,900
DK: $8,900
FA: $6,400
Breakdown: Mike Evans cost me between $10K-$50K this past week — all I needed was an average week from him to shoot up the GPP standings. He will rebound against a🦋 Saints defense that surrenders the second-most passing yards per game and thi﷽rd-most per attempt.
WR, Odell Beckham Jr., Giants, vs. Cowboys
FD: $8,500
DK: $8,000
FA: $6,500
Breakdown:
WR, Tyrell Williams, Chargers, at Panthers
FD: $6,800
DK: $6,100
FA: $4,400
Breakdown:
WR, Doug Baldwin, Seahawks, at Packers
FD: $7,000
DK: $6,800
FA: $5,000
Breakdown:
WR, Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos, at Titans
FD: $5,900
DK: $5,700
FA: $4,800
Breakdown:
WR, Brandon LaFell, Bengals, at Browns
FD: $5,800
DK: $5,000
FA: $4,700
Breakdown: If Andy Dalton achieves the standard goal of 250 yards passing and two TDs, it means LaFell should be good for 5-80-1 💫which, would be three-times a returnꦐ on investment.
WR, Golden Tate, Lions, vs. Bears
FD: $6,300
DK: $6,600
FA: $5,150
Breakdown:
WR, Sammy Watkins, Bills, vs. Steelers
FD: $6,000
DK: $5,300
FA: $4,600
Breakdown: Watkins lining up against Steelers rookie Artie Burns is one of the better WR/CB matchups of൩ the week. Watkins will hit for a big pass play this week, which is why I really like h🅺im in GPP contests.
WR, Dontrelle Inman, Chargers, at Panthers
FD: $5,500
DK: $4,800
FA: $4,200
Breakdown:
WR, Will Fuller, Texans, at Colts
FD: $5,400
DK: $4,500
FA: $4,400
Breakdown: My WR model absolutely loves a healthy Fullꦆer against Colts CB Darius Butler. He is a GPP-only play and hasn’t done much since his breakout first three weeks of the season, but this could be a return for the rookie WR, as long as Brock Osweiler can get the bal💦l to him.
TE, Jimmy Graham, Seahawks, at Packers
FD: $6,600
DK: $5,500
FA: $4,950
Breakdown: Graham is averaging six targets, five receptions, 65 yards and 0.8 TDs over his past five games. The Packers give up the sixth-most fantasy po🦹ints to TEs this season.
TE, Tyler Eifert, Bengals, at Browns
FD: $6,700
DK: $6,000
FA: $4,900
Breakdown:
TE, Delanie Walker, Titans, vs. Broncos
FD: $6,200
DK: $4,400
FA: $4,700
Breakdown:
TE, Antonio Gates, Chargers, at Panthers
FD: $5,200
DK: $3,800
FA: $3,900
Breakdown:
TE, Cameron Brate, Buccaneers, vs. Saints
FD: $5,600
DK: $4,100
FA: $4,600
Breakdown:
D/ST, Minnesota Vikings, at Jaguars
FD: $4,800
DK: $3,900
FA: $3,000
Breakdown: By far the best defense on the board this week.
D/ST, Cincinnati Bengals, at Browns
FD: $5,000
DK: $3,500
FA: $3,200
Breakdown: Any D🐻/ST against the Browns is good, but Rob✨ert Griffin III in his first start in 11 weeks is even better.
D/ST, Detroit Lions, vs. Bears
FD: $4,600
DK: $3,600
FA: $2,950
Breakdown: The Lions are playing much better d🦂efense and will have LB DeAndre Levy back to face the Bears. Chicago has the third-fewest points scored this season.
D/ST, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Saints
FD: $4,100
DK: $2,400
FA: $2,500
Breakdown: Tampa Bay has been lights out of la🧔te, and the Bucs D/ST is averaging 12 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. I’ll take ไa chance on them for this price despite the high-powered offense of New Orleans.
D/ST, Atlanta Falcons, at Rams
FD: $4,700
DK: $3,100
FA: $2,800
Breakdown: The Rams have nothing on offense,🥀 and this provides little dꦚownside for the opposing defense.
K, Josh Lambo, Chargers, at Panthers
FD: $4,600
DK: N/A
FA: N/A
Breakdown: I’m trusting the process here with Lambo, as I don’t really like him very mu🐻ch. But the Chargers are in the bottom third of the NFL in red zone TD percentage, and there should be no weather concerns in C✃arolina on Sunday.
K, Matt Prater, Lions, vs. Bears
FD: $4,900
DK: N/A
FA: N/A
Breakdown: Prater has been the Lions’ MVP this season, and I am projecting a loไw-sco👍ring, FG-plentiful contest.
K, Dan Bailey, Cowboys, at Giants
FD: $4,700
DK: N/A
FA: N/A
Breakdown: ⭕The Giants’ defense will limit the Cowboys’ offense to FGs, and as we all know, Dan Bailey won’t🍌 miss.
K, Kai Forbath, Vikings, at Jaguars
FD: $4,500
DK: N/A
FA: N/A
Breakdown: Love low-projected scoring games for kickers. Forbath is minimum price and wilꦐꦅl face no weather concerns in Jacksonville this week.
Jeff Mans is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com and host of the “The Fantasy Alarm Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. To get all you need to learn, play and win daily fantasy sports, get the DFS Playbook PRO from FantasyAlarm.com.