The debate about whether or not you need🧔 to draft an ace early is a time-honored t🌱radition in the fantasy world. Many experts will tell you to grab a top-tier guy to anchor your staff, and others will tell you to build your offense first and wait on pitching.
Whichever direction you choose, just keep in mind: Your success or failure doesn’t ride on who your ace is, but how well you work through the mid-tier options. Your goal is to build the best rotation, not necessarily have the best names, and grabbing high-end value at mid-tier pr🃏ices is how you achieve that goal.
You should set up your rankings rankings up in tiers of equivalent value. Finding players of relati𓆏vely equal value should help lessen th𒀰e sting of watching your buddy snag one of your favorites right before your pick. Once your tiers are set, you can move onto the different categories.
If you skip the high-end ace, you know you’re going to have to seek out hurlers who are strong in the strikeout department. Run down your tiers and highlight names like Jo🌊se Quintana, Robbie Ray, Michael Pineda, Ian Kennedy and Johnꦕ Lackey. There is nothing sexy about any of these names, but do you want sexy or do you want strikeouts?
Last year, just 22 starting pitchers had 180 or more strikeouts. Maybe the ratios aren’t the be𓆏-all, end-all, buꦰt chalk that up as another reason to grab a pair of solid closers.
As is the case with any position in which you are seeking bargain prices, you have to try andꦯ identify potential breakouts. Third-year starters are where a number of people look, though that could be more myth than a viable strategy. The trick is to look at their peripheral numbers and see what the trends look like.
If their strikeout rate diminished from Year 1 to Year 2, did they show an improved command? Chances are they will find that happy medium in Year 3. Has their line-♕drive rate diminished while increasing the number of ground-ball outs they’ve induced? Pitchers take time to mature, and learning hitter tendencies is not an overnight process. If pitchers have increased their ground-ball rates, chances are they have learned how to fool hitters more with their breaking stuff. Hurlers such as Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers and Jerad Eickoff have statistical trends which indicate a potential step forward, and none of them has a lofty price tag.
You also can look to pitchers who have spe🐎nt the past year or two working themselves back from procedures such as Tommy John surgery. The Giants’ Matt Moore is a fantastic example. Pitchers returning from the procedure often find their velocity returns first, but then spend a number of innings working back their command.
After missing almost the entire 2014 season and most of 2015, 🐭Moore showed some subtle improvements during the first half of 2016, but really blossomed in the second half with improved command and a better strikeout rate. Couple that with a home ballpark that screams pitcher’s haven, and you’ve got one heck of an option ready to break out.
Most of all, though, is to remember to avoid the injury-prone and high-risk candidates when sifting through the bargain bin. You may think you’re getting a great deal, and you may think there is huge upside, but in a lot of these cases, the risk is far greater than the potential reward. Matt Harvey comes to mind, as he deals with a significant drop in hi🐻s velocity. Think 2014 Justin Verlander before you fish in that pond.
What about Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, Sonny Gray and David Price? They’re big names, for sure, but the results certainly aren’t, and building your rotation around the🌞m is like playing Jenga with a guy who has feet for hands.
Do yourself a favor and start paying closer attention to which pitchers you draft in the middle꧋ to late rounds. The big names are great, but spending your time deciding between Corey Kluber and Chris Sale is silly. Spend more time understanding why you want Aaron Nola over Drew Pomeranz. The research you put in to find the right mid-tier targets will be the difference-maker for your fantasy season.
Howard Bender is the managing editor at and host of “Fantasy Sports Tonight” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Saturdays at 2 p.m. and Sundays at 8 p.m.). Follow him on Twitter .