One of the more controversial fantasy baseball draft picks in 2017 was the first-round selection ꦏof Nationals shortstop Trea Turner.
Though he had a phenomenal debut in 2016 and posted a .342/.370/.567 slash line with 13 home runs and 33 stolen bases over just 324 plate appearances, pundits warned against prorating his totals over the course of a full season with expectations of 15-20 home runs and 70 stolen bases. Those who failed to heed the advice of the analysts got their final dose of disappointment when the 24-year old suffered a broken wrist after being hit by a pitch in Thursday’s l𒁃oss to the Cubs.
Obviously, injuries like this cannot be predicted, and labeling Turner a first-round bust on this moment alone is a mistake. Neܫvertheless, when you consider the concept of value-drafting, it actually is fair to say Turner was a first-round bust before his season even began.
For him to provide a return value equal to his draft position, those prorat🐻ed totals needed to be reached by season’s end and, simply put, baseball doesn’t work that way. It is more than just being blessed with solid, raw talent. There is an ebb and flow, there are peaks and valleys, and of course, countless mitigating circumstances that need to be accounted for when projecting a player’s final stat line.
Fantasy owners got their first taste of calamity when Turner opened the season on a six-game 3-for-19 (.158) skid and landed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. He stole three bases but had no home runs, no runs scored, one RBI and proceeded to miss the next two weeks of the regular season. No one was labeling him a b𒀰ust, but those who warned against his early draft position already were lining up the “I told you so’s” for his owners.
When he returned to the lineup in late April, he benefited from a four-game series in hitter-friendly Colorado but struggled thereafter and posted a depressing .239 averag൩e for the month of May. He managed three home runs and nine stolen bases, bringing his season-long numbers to five homers and 13 stolen bases, but he was nowhere near on-pace for his projected totals. The criticisms began to grow louder, and though none of his owജners were backing down, there was a distinct feeling of trepidation that, perhaps, a mistake was made.
But then the calendar flipped to June and with it, a switch seemingly turned on for Turner. Both his batter’s eye and plate discipline imp൲roved, and though he still wasn’t hitting for any real power, his on-base work was strong and his talents on the base paths were on full display.
Over a 25-game span, he swiped 20 bases to overtake speedster Billy Hamilton for the league lead, and you could hear the collective sigh of relief from Turner’s owners. He may not be able to reach the lofty projections of 15-20 home runs, but suddenly the 70 stolen🍃 bases were well within reach.
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Unfortunately, the surge in speed still wouldn’t have b🍰een enough to bring a proper return value for his draft position. His owners may have been excited and relieved by the increased♊ level of play, but without the power or the anticipated .300 batting average, his value really was nothing more than that of a one-trick pony speedster like Hamilton or Dee Gordon, both of whom were drafted several rounds after Turner and offered a stronger dividend on the investment made. That is what value drafting is all about.
It would have been interesting to see just how close to a proper return value Turner could have provided, but this latest injury, which likely will keep him out for roughly six to eight weeks, immediately puts an end to the discussi🦄on.
Even if he were to return in mid-August, closer to the six-week mark, he will have missed far too much time to return the first-round value many were hoping to get. Though that is, for lack of a better word, a bummer for his fantasy owners, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact this failure was set up right from Day 1. His broken wrist may mask the flop, but when you look to own him next season, understand he needs to be drafted ♒according to his true value, not that of unrealistic expectations.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter and catch him on the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 4-6 p.m.