Hasty waiver moves can doom your fantasy baseball season

There is nothing more frustrating in than when your team gets off to an ice-cold start. You spent countless hours researching players, analyzing statistics and studying the positions all spring. The least they could do is hit better than the Mendoza line. And though pundits will tell you to be patient, your frustration grows exponentially, and your desire to shake things up overtakes your sensible nature. 

Your league’s can be a dangerous place to live right now. The temptation to swap out a cold hitter or struggling starter is immense, especially when you see available players batting .375 or posting 2.25 ERAs with double-digit strikeouts. 

Why should you be saddled with Yoan Moncada hitting .184 when you could have Jed Lowrie batting .333 with three home runs and 11 RBIs? Why is your ERA getting pounded by the likes of Lance McCullers and Luis Castillo when you could be cruising in first place with Ian Kennedy and Joey Lucchesi? Why should you suffer? 

Rest assured, your frustrations are heard, loud and clear. We all deal with them. The real test isn’t how quickly you can swap these guys out, it is how much restraint you can exhibit in times like these. 

The most common mistake made at this time of year, and frankly, the way championships are lost by so many, is the continuous rotation of players from the waiver wire during April. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t make any moves at all. It is more about a lesson in patience and understanding this game is all about ebb and flow. 

We know what Lowrie is capable of doing in a given season. He is 33 years old and has been playing in the majors since 2008. He is a career .262 hitter with 15-homer power, and he doesn’t steal any bases. He also has a lengthy injury history. He has provided 20 percent of his power production in the first three weeks of the season, and picking him up now means you’re buying a declining average and subpar production for the rest of the year. Moncada’s upside in May alone is worth way more than that. 

Baseball is a game of averages, and statistics almost always regress to the mean. What goes up must come down, and a struggling hitter will eventually find his groove. Pitchers are no different. How many bad starts must you endure to watch Kennedy’s current ERA climb toward his 4.04 career mark? 

There always are exceptions to the rule, but they are the extreme rarity. Don’t be fooled by a small sample size of data. See the big picture and your team will be stronger in the end. 

Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at . Follow him on Twitter and catch him on the award winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your daily fantasy sports advice, and .