The word “bust” tends to have a negative connotation in fantasy sports, but someone can be labeled a bust and still have a ꦐgood season — it just꧂ means didn’t live up to the expectations of their draft position.
That i꧂s why it is important to identify players heading into your draft tಞhat might not be worth taking at their average draft position.
For instance, Jesus Aguilar took the fantasy world by storm in 2018. He entered the season as the 63rd-ranked first baseman with a 792.0 average draft position, which means c💟alling him an afterthought would be kind.
After hitting .298 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs and a .995 OPS in 87 first-half games, Roto Rage named Aguilar the MVP of the season’s first stan🧜za. His second half, however, was another story. He hit .245 with 11 homers, 38 RBIs and a .760 OPS over 62 games.
Aguilar currently has an 81.51 ADP, according to Fantasy Alarm, meaning he is being drafted ahead of proven entities, and overall safer picks, like Jose Abreu or Daniel Murphy, who already has first-base eligibility ꧑in Yahoo leagues and gets to play half his games in Coors Field.
We know Aguilar is powerful, as he has hit 51 home runs 𒅌over the past two seasons, and hisꦬ 23.8 percent HR/FB rate (his career average is 22.3) was the 11th-best in the league last season.
Nevertheless, the plodding 250-pounder struck out in 25.3 percent of his at-bats last 🐽season and 30.2 percent the year before, and his 12.4 percenওt swinging-strike rate doesn’t indicate that percentage will be any lower going forward. He also had a high chase rate (35.6 percent), which was among the worst in the league.
Aguilar may have another solid season, but you’re paying up for a player who had a solid first half before fading into oblivion. There is no track record saying he can repeat his 2018 success. Unless he drops a round💛 or two, taking a one-dimensional player (you can find power throughout the draft) over more well-rounded positions players such as Mitch Haniger, the versatile Jonathan Villar or Scooter Gennett doesn’t sound like a draft ꦛpick well spent.
Here’s a look at some other corner infielders who may not be worth their hig🌼h price tag:
A case can be made for Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez (3.90), coming off a 30-30 season, not being the third-best fantasy option. He is another player who had an incredible first half (.302, 29 HR, 70 RBI, 1.029 OPS, 20 SB) that was followed by a disappointing finish (.218, 10 HR, 35 RBI, .793 OPS, 14 SB). Though he may be in line for another great campaign, and his stolen bases certainly add value, being drafted before Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez or last year’s league MVP, Christian Yelich, seems like a price that is bound to come with ✃buyer’s remorse.
Manny “Johnny Hustle” Ma♋chado (15.87) looked awful in the playoffs with the Dodgers, made comments that ﷺquestion his work ethic and Petco Park is nothing like Camden Yards, where the 26-year-old had most of his success. Roto Rage would be wary.
There is no denying Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (47.80) being an incredible talent and a player on everyone’s radar. He is being drafted as the seventh-best third baseman — ahead of Eugenio Suarez, Matt Carpenter or Miguel Andujar, who has at least played in big league games. For this kind of price tag, Guerrero has to succeed … and stay healthy. Killing it at the minor league level is one thing, but success in The Show is a different story — just look at Byron Buxton.
Despite hitting 32 homers last year, Travis S𓂃haw (97.04) struggled mightily against southpaws (.209, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .599 OPS). His going rate is far too high for a guy you will have to bench when the Brewers face a lefty.
Though Edwin Encarnacion (118.79) has hit 30 or more homers every season since 2012, he has struck out 403 times over the past three years while seeing his average decline every year since 2015 (.277 to .263 to .258 to .246). He moves from Cleveland’s hitter-friendly Progressive Field to the not-so-friendl🐈y confines of T-Mobile Park in Seattle. His price isn’t outrageous, but there are younger players available later in the draft who do the same thing. Take a pass on Encarnacion.
Jarad Wilk’s Roto Rage Rankings
Roto Rage Jarad Wilk names the best corner infielders. Next week: outfielders
First base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, StL
2. Freddie Freeman, Atl
3. Anthony Rizzo, CHC
4. Jose Abreu, CWS
5. Joey Votto, Cin
6. Cody Bellinger, LAD
7. Matt Olson, Oak
8. Eric Hosmer, SD
9. Matt Carpenter, StL
10. Jesus Aguilar, Mil
11. Carlos Santana, Cle
12. Max Muncy, LAD
13. Miguel Cabrera, Det
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Sea
15. Jake Bauers, Cle
16. Justin Smoak, Tor
17. Tyler White, Hou
18. Yuli Gurriel, Hou
19. Ian Desmond, Col
20. Josh Bell, Pit
21. Luke Voit, NYY
22. Trey Mancini, Bal
23. Jurickson Profar, Oak
24. C.J. Cron, Min
25. Wilmer Flores, Ari
26. Brandon Belt, SF
27. Pete Alonso, NYM
28. Jose Martinez, StL
29.Kendrys Morales, Tor
30 Ryan Zimmerman, Was
31. Justin Bour,LAA
32. Yonder Alonso, CWS
33. Ryan O’Hearn, KC
34. Ryon Healy, Sea
35. Ronald Guzman, Tex
36. Ryan McMahon, Col
37. Mitch Moreland, Bos
38. Mark Canha, Oak
39. Peter O’Brien, Mia
40. Albert Pujols, LAA
Third base
1. Nolan Arenado, Col
2. Jose Ramirez, Cle
3. Manny Machado, SD
4. Alex Bregman, Hou
5. Kris Bryant, CHC
6. Anthony Rendon, Was
7. Eugenio Suarez, Cin
8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor
9. Miguel Andujar, NYY
10. Mike Moustakas, Mil
11. Rafael Devers, Bos
12. Josh Donaldson, Atl
13. Justin Turner, LAD
14. Wil Myers, SD
15. Matt Chapman, Oak
16. Maikel Franco, Phi
17. Travis Shaw, Mil
18. Jake Lamb, Ari
19. Eduardo Escobar, Ari
20. Kyle Seager, Sea
21. Brian Anderson, Mia
22. Evan Longoria, SF
23. Miguel Sano, Min
24. Renato Nunez, Bal
25. Jeimer Candelario, Det
26. Nick Senzel, Cin
27. Matt Duffy, TB
28. Jed Lowrie, NYM
29. Scott Kingery, Phil
30. Zack Cozart, LAA
Team name of the week
The Bride and deGrom
Submitted by Jeffrey Bernstein