This week, the Federal Reserve likely will vote to cut interest rates ā when it should be raising them. If the economy is so dependent on low interest rates that a near-record-low rate of 2.4 percent isnāt low enough, there is something wrong with the economy, and piling on more ācheap debt will make the crash ź¦that much harder.
Since the financial crisis of more than a decade ago, America and the world have gotten dangerouslyš”š° addicted to debt. The Fed has fed the addiction.
The Fed (roughly speaking) sets the interest rate at wš§hich banks can borrow. The lower the rate, the lower the rate at which banks will lend to homeowners, credit-card borrowers, car buyers and the like.
In 2008, as the financial system was failing, the Fed pushed its ką½§ey interest rate down to zero and kept it there for seven years. The point was to get peoplź¦e spending again. Since they had little discretionary income, they couldnāt spend more unless they could borrow more.
The problem is that cheap debt got the economy into trouble in the first place. By 2008, after a decade during which interest rates were also low, people had already borrowed so much that they couą¹ldnāt borrow anymore. Household debt had nearly doubled between 2000 and 2007, to $14.2 trillion from $7.2 trillion. Choking on mortgage debt, in particular, Americans cut off their spending.
š¬AmericšÆans were sending an important market signal; something was wrong. But the Fed wanted the economy to ignore this signal.
All of this has āworked.ā Household debt is at another record high, at $15.7 trillion. Even entities that didnāt partake in the last boom jumped in. Corporations have Āincreased borrowing, to close to $10 trillion, from $6.3 trillion on the eve of the financial crisis. The fedešral government has tripled its debt, to $18.2 trillion from $6.1 trillišon.
Last week, one hedge-fund managšer told The Financial Times that āevery deal Iāve looked at in the past two weeks has been pure garbageā ā indicating that much of this borrowing wonāt be paid back.
Debt has trickled down ā inefficiently ā into the ārealā economy. Yes, itās good news thašt a record number of people ašre working.
Yet what is the price?
The United States has sacrificed one of the tenets of free markets: Ārational valuation of assets. When people and companies can borrow an unlį©į©į©į©į©į©ā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©ā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©ā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©š±į©į©į©imited amount of money to buy stuff ā houses, stocks, bonds, other companies ā they push the price ąµ²of that stuff up. An index Āfavored by Yale economist Robert Shiller shows stock prices trading at more than 30 times earnings, higher than at any time except the tech bubble of 1999.
But stock prices are the least strange of stranger things. As James Grant of the Interest Rate Observer points out, for $13 trillion worth of global bonds, interest rates are negative; that is, lenders pay people to borrow money. āThereās been nothing like it in 4,000 years,ā he wrote in The Wall Street Journal.
It is no longer bizarre that Uber was able to list itself on the stock market at a valuationā of $82 billion in May, despite infinitely projecā ted losses.
In mid-Julyš§ø, Europeās biggest financial-technology company, N26, blithely told the world that āin all honestly, profitability is not one of our core metrics. .ā.ā. In the years to come, we wonāt see profitability. Weāre not aiming to reach profitability.ā Um, come again?
It is beyondź§ weird that trillions of dollars in global capital can find no use but to destroy themselveš”s in unprofitable ventures.
Yet the Fed has created a tršap for itself. If it doesnāt keep the debt coming, it will ruin the illusion. Itās also under outside strain. āOur Federal Reserve doesnāt have a clue!ā the president tweeted recently.
The Times agrees, noting that the Fed āshould demonstrate its independenceā by doing what Trump wants, ābecause the economy needs the help.ā What is the economy going tšo need when the recession comes? Rates of negative-10?
The Fed justifies itself in saying that inflaš ŗtion is low, so it has room to pump money into the economy. But the Fed is fighting the last war, inflation in everyday goodsā and services, and ignoring what its Āasset inflation is doing to free markets.
How will voters react to an Āalready beleaguered capitalism when they perceiš¤”ve it as based on imaginary numbers?
Nicole Gelinas is a contributing editor of City Journal.
Twitter: @NicoleGelinas