Here’s the free-agent pitch.
If you want a high-end starting pitcher, then consider this your lucky winter. You’ll notice that, as you devour The Post’s breakdown of the top 30 free agents, with their predicted destinations and contracts, seven of the top 10 are starting pitchers, a position on the rise in light of the Nationals-Astros World Series that just ended (and that showcased the top three free agents overall).
The rankings result from statistical analysis, projected earnings and a dollop of popular demand; we play the hits here, so the more familiar name gets the edge over a less familiar one. The predictions emanate from background conversations with team officials, agents and other people in the loop, as well as an attempt to think along with clubs and players.
1. Gerrit Cole (RHP, Age: 29): You grew up in Orange County (California, not New York) and now you receive an opportunity to return there and make gobs of money. Old people like me call this “a no-brainer.” Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, eight years, $280 million.
2. Anthony Rendon (3B, Age 29): He might have made more money for himself with postseason excellence since Carlos Beltran tantalized the Mets while in an Astros uniform 15 years ago. Prediction: Washington Nationals, seven years, $232 million.
3. Stephen Strasburg (RHP, Age: 31): He might have made more money for himself with postseason excellence…yeah, the Nats’ elite players really were something in October, weren’t they? Prediction: Washington Nationals, six years, $182 million.
4. Zack Wheeler (RHP, Age: 29): Kudos to him for enduring great expectations, major injury setbacks and Mets organizational chaos. Now comes the reward. Prediction: New York Yankees, four years, $85 million.
5. Yasmani Grandal (C, Age: 30): The first of seven players on this list facing free agency for a second straight year, he won’t be back on it next year. Prediction: New York Mets, four years, $65 million.
6. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP, Age: 32): He accepted the qualifying offer a year ago and rebuilt his value, and now he’ll be compensation-free after a great season. Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, three years, $60 million.
7. Josh Donaldson (3B, Age: 33): His pillow contract with the Braves worked perfectly. His only drawback will be the qualifying offer hanging over him. Prediction: Atlanta Braves, three years, $75 million
8. Jake Odorizzi (RHP, Age: 29): The most unheralded pitcher of this top tier should get rewarded for his consistency. Prediction: Houston Astros, four years, $66 million.
9. Madison Bumgarner (LHP, Age: 30): With the October legend’s original team planning for the next big run, it’s time for the North Carolinian to go home (or as close to home as possible). Prediction: Atlanta Braves, three years, $60 million.
10. Dallas Keuchel (LHP, Age: 31): How much ground can he make up after his disappointing first venture into free agency that didn’t end until June? Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, three years, $48 million.
11. Nicholas Castellanos (OF-3B, Age: 27): His anonymous toiling with the terrible Tigers for years (before last July’s trade to the Cubs) shouldn’t diminish the value of his bat. Prediction: Texas Rangers, three years, $54 million.
12. Marcell Ozuna (OF, Age: 28): The Big Bear should benefit from a market short on outfielders. Prediction: Chicago White Sox, three years, $70 million.
13. Brett Gardner (OF, Age: 36): This 36-year-old free-agency rookie always has been admired by other clubs… and he’ll continue to be admired by other clubs. Prediction: New York Yankees, one year, $10 million.
14. Cole Hamels (LHP, Age: 35): Like Gardner, a first-time free agent headed into his age-36 season. Like Bumgarner, it’s time to go home. Prediction: San Diego Padres, two years, $28 million.
15. Mike Moustakas (3B-2B, Age: 31): This marks his third straight foray into the open market, which has not been kind to him. Here’s betting on a little more kindness this time. Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, two years, $25 million.
16. Didi Gregorius (SS, Age: 29): If anyone on this list needs a 2020 pillow contract to rebuild his brand, it’s Gregorius, who just wasn’t the same after returning from Tommy John surgery. Prediction: New York Yankees, one year, $12 million.
17. Jose Abreu (1B-DH, Age: 32): Both he and the White Sox want to keep this fruitful relationship going. Prediction: Chicago White Sox, one year, $17.8 million.
18. Edwin Encarnacion (DH-1B, Age: 36): Someone tied him up and stole his uniform in the American League Championship Series a la Frank Drebin with Enrico Palazzo, right? Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays, one year, $10 million.
19. Rick Porcello (RHP, Age: 30): Whoever signs the New Jersey native can say they acquired a Cy Young Award winner, which brings the Mets to mind… except they might run out of money. Prediction: Texas Rangers, two years, $25 million.
20. Will Smith (LHP, Age: 30): When Aroldis Chapman stayed with the Yankees, it made Smith the top closer available. Prediction: Washington Nationals, three years, $40 million.
21. Dellin Betances (RHP, Age: 31): That he appeared to straighten out his arm before his lower half gave out last September should help the drafted-and-developed Yankee. Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, two years, $20 million.
22. Travis d’Arnaud (C, Age: 30): After all of those injuries and setbacks, his timing is optimal, coming off a rebirth with the Rays. Prediction: Cincinnati Reds, three years, $23 million.
23. Wade Miley (LHP, Age: 32): He enjoyed a very nice rebirth in the Astros’ pitching makeover factory before appearing to tire in September. Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, two years, $18 million.
24. Will Harris (RHP, Age: 35): If only the World Series had ended in five games, the 35-year-old would be sitting on top of the world. He’ll still do fine. Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, two years, $18 million.
25. Todd Frazier (3B-1B, Age: 33): It’s time for this Jersey guy to hit the road again after two and a half years with the local clubs. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, one year, $5 million.
26. Yasiel Puig (OF, Age: 28): The best bet here to get a one-year deal, the optimal strategy to get the most out of the erratic, exciting talent. Prediction: Miami Marlins, one year, $7 million.
27. Corey Dickerson (OF, Age: 30): Sidelined for most of last year, he’ll be a good bounce-back candidate for someone. Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays, one year, $8 million.
28. Michael Pineda (RHP, Age: 30): The former Yankee will miss the first 36 games of 2020 as he finishes serving his sentence for illegal performance-enhancing drug usage. Prediction: Minnesota Twins, two years, $20 million.
29. Howie Kendrick (IF, Age: 36): The postseason hero showed that he has plenty left in his 36-year-old tank. Prediction: Washington Nationals, one year, $6 million.
30. Ben Zobrist (IF-OF, Age: 38): He intends to play again after missing most of 2019 to deal with his divorce. Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, one year, $5 million.