Noah Syndergaard’s exit gives Billy Eppler a problem he failed to solve last time: Sherman
Noah Syndergaard was going to be part of the problem. But a talented part of the problem. With lots of upside.
Now, among the many headaches Billy Eppler will encounter embarking on his Mets GM tenure — and where would you even begin that list? — he has to contemplate what to do with a problem-laced rotation that will likely now not have Syndergaard as a potential solution.
The righty signed a one-year, $21 million pact with the Angels that became official Tuesday when he passed his physical. That was no layup. Syndergaard had pitched two innings the last two years after Tommy John surgery, a couple of one-inning stints late last season in which he did not throw a breaking ball. As 2022 auditions go, it was akin to singing the alphabet to try to land a role in a Broadway musical.
But the Angels are desperate for starting pitching — so much so they used all 20 picks in June on arms in Perry Minasian’s first draft as general manager. So desperate that they are willing to forfeit their second highest pick next June on a starter (Syndergaard) who — if they are fortunate — will pitch 140 innings next season. So desperate, in part, because the Angels GM from 2016-20 kept trying to fix the pitching and never did inventory enough to hand off something worthwhile to Minasian.
That was Eppler, who in his five Angels seasons never could get the starting pitching right. He won the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, got a strong COVID-shortened 2020 season from Dylan Bundy (who then bombed in 2021) and made a nice small deal for Patrick Sandoval, who appeared to be blossoming last year for Minasian. But there just was not enough talent and progress. Not enough, for example, from the drafts, though 2020 No. 10 overall pick Reid Detmers, even after a terrible major league cameo in 2021 (7.40 ERA in five starts), has promise.
It will be vital for the Eppler Mets administration to nail the draft immediately. The prospect base he inherits is not deep, especially in pitching. And the Mets appear like they will get a quick chance to address that. Because they did not sign first pick Kumar Rocker this summer, the Mets will have the 11th and 14th picks in the first round. If Syndergaard and Michael Conforto both reject the $18.4 million qualifying offer by the Wednesday 5 p.m. deadline, the Mets will gain two additional picks before the third round. In all, the Mets could be looking at six of roughly the top-100 selections and a quick chance, if done well, to remake their system.
That is unless they sign a player with a qualifying offer, in which case they would forfeit the 14th-overall pick. With Eduardo Rodriguez agreeing with the Tigers, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander are the final free-agent qualified starters who would cost the Mets that pick to sign. And Eppler will have to decide — or Sandy Alderson or Steve Cohen — if this is a year to hoard picks or, because they have so many, to sacrifice one.
The Mets, though, can’t stand pat with this rotation. They can hope for health from Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco and that 2021 first-half Taijuan Walker is full-season Taijuan Walker in 2022. But deGrom will pitch at 34 in 2022 and did not appear in a game after July 7 with mysterious ailments never fully defined publicly. Carrasco will pitch at 35 coming off a hamstrung season of 12 starts with a 6.04 ERA. Walker went from an All-Star to an NL-worst (minimum 10 starts) 7.14 second-half ERA. In the best scenario, Tylor Megill and David Peterson, who combined for a 4.95 ERA in 33 starts, would be at Triple-A for depth.
Syndergaard would have provided more uncertainty. But also more potential talent. The Angels are trying to play the upside. Syndergaard is just 29. After missing most of two seasons following Tommy John surgery, Jameson Taillon was able to give the 2021 Yankees 29 starts and 144 ¹/₃ innings. Can Syndergaard offer the Angels something similar? For Syndergaard, he receives more than the qualifying offer and, if he performs well, a chance to hit free agency at 30 next offseason, rid of the qualifying offer forever.
Eppler can now redirect Syndergaard’s potential money elsewhere when it has become clear the cost of starting pitching is going to be significant. Andrew Heaney, who started the most games (66) for the Eppler Angels of 2016-20, received a one-year, $8.5 million deal from the Dodgers off an awful season based on underlying stats. Underlying stats also convinced the Tigers to risk five years at $77 million on Rodriguez, who missed the 2020 season due to a serious heart ailment incurred after contracting COVID. Jose Berrios, a season short of free agency, agreed to a seven-year, $131 million extension with the Blue Jays on Tuesday. And Syndergaard — two innings in two years — is on the doorstep of the fourth-largest one-year free-agent deal ever behind two for Roger Clemens and one for Josh Donaldson.
So does Eppler try to go to the top of the field for Ray, who is likely to be named the AL Cy Young winner on Wednesday, Kevin Gausman or try to retain Marcus Stroman? My guess is Max Scherzer would not come to Queens. Would Verlander? Is it worth gambling on Jon Gray’s upside, that Anthony DeSclafani can repeat his strong 2021 or that there is health in Carlos Rodon’s arm? They are all free agents, but far from free.
Eppler arrives with so much on his plate, including hiring a manager, most of a coaching staff and trying to finally imbue the Mets with a championship culture and decision-making processes. He also from the start has a starter problem, just like he had in Anaheim. Can he solve it this time?
