Subway ridership is on the fast-track to disaster, as the recent Omicron-fueled surge in COVID-19 has left train cars empty and is threatening the MTA’s bottom line.
The number of daily trips fell from a pandemic-era record of 3.4 million in early December, toꦛ just 2.1 million trips last Friday, newly released data from the authority shows.
The low number, which came as COVID-19 cases spiked to some 90,000 recorde🦋d infections at the end of last week, could spell major financial trouble for the MTA and lea🤡d to dreaded subway fare hikes or service reductions.
“Any deterioration of revenue is certainly a concern, especially if there’s no focus on operating reforms savings,” said Citizens Budget Commission Vice President Alex Heil. “There is a big gap [when the federal aid runs out] and that gap has to be closed.”
Monday’s subway data shows a continued trend of low subway ridership, as only 2.34 million passed through turnstiles, a figure that is just 44.9 percent of what it was before COVID-19.
Before the arrival of Omicron — the combined effects of vacations and wintry weather — transit use has been showing signs of a comeback, with weekday levels in early December reaching nearly 60 percent what it was before COVID-19 hit in 2020.
The drop in fare revenue has been somewhat offset by federal aid, allowing Gov. Kathy Hochul to avoid fare hikes, layoffs or major service cuts.
The MTA’s most recent budget assume ridership about halfway between “best-case” and “worst-case” ridership scenarios forecasted by outside consultants from McKinsey & Company in December 2020.
But McKinsey’s analysis assumed ridership would hit 80 percent pre-COVID levels by the end of this year after the “epidemiological end of the pandemic” in the first quarter of 2022, according to a summary obtained by The Post through a freedom of information request. Omicron is already defying those expectations.
“We know they’re going to have financial trouble, but the question is not ‘if’ but ‘when?’ Signs right now are pointing to sooner,” said Reinvent Albany Research Analyst Rachael Fauss. “If ridership is down due to Omicron, the federal money doesn’t spread as far.”
Acting MTA Chair Janno Lieber has warned higher fares could inadvertently hurt rev꧃enue by deterring ridership.
“The MTA has the ways to balance its budget – service reductions, fare hikes, and workforce cuts. None of which are palatable,” said Lisa Daglian of the authority’s in-house citizens committee. “We need to find another, better way to fund operations.”
Ridership on subways, buses Metro-North and Long Island Rail Road last week all fell below the “worst-case” numbers anticipated by McKinsey for the start of 2022, but transit officials are optimistic and about an increase once the Omicron surge subsides.
“The MTA watches ridership very closely and based on the short-lived experience of Omicron spikes in other countries are optimistic that holiday and virus-reduced totals will revert to consistent increases seen through the middle of last month,” spokesman Aaron Donovan said in a statement.
