As we continue our breakdown of each NCAA Tournament region, we now turn our attention to the East Region.
Baylor, the defending national champion, is the No. 1 seed in the region, but there’s stiff competition elsewhere in the section.
Kentucky, Purdue and UCLA fill out the top-four seeds in the region while blue blood North Carolina is the eighth seed in t🐬he region.
So without further delay, here are our picks fo🐻r the best value, team to stay away from and which team reaches the national semifinals.
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Best East Region Value Bet – #4 UCLA (+600)
The Bruins crumbled late in the PAC-12 title game, but the underlying statisticღs for this team suggest it is capab🤡le of making a run.
Coach Mick Cronin’s side is 15th among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th among tournament teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com.
Plus, UCLA’s adjusted efficiency margin is the third-best in the region and is only slightly lower than Baylor’s overall adjusted efficiency (26.32 for the Bears vs. 24.85 for the Bruins, again per kenpom.com).
UCLA demonstrated it was capable of a deep run in last year’s tournament and own some solid wins against top competition this season, posting two victories against Arizona and Villanova.
Steer Clear – #3 Purdue (+450)
Although this isn’t strictly a “favorite” to emerge from the region, Purdue’s path to the regional finals is littered with quality opponents.
Should Texas get past a hot Virginia Tech team, I believe their defense presents some real matchup problems for the Purdue offense. The Longhorns own the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the region, which could cause problems for Purdue’s offense.
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Even if the Boilermakers get past Texas, there’s a big gap on paper between them and likely regional semifinal opponent Kentucky. Plus, even though the Wildcats own a worse record against the top-25 this season, Purdue played in what I had rated a much weaker conference.
From where I’m sitting, the ceiling for Purdue is the regional final, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it crash out as early as the second round.
Pick to Advance – Kentucky (+200)
In support of the earlieꦍr statements, this Kentucky team is one of the best in the tournament. It has the third-best adjusted efficiency margin in the n𓄧ation and the fourth-best offense in the land.
It has also played really good basketball as of lat♛e, finishing the season 11🃏-3 in the last 14 games, a run that began with a marquee win over Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
Further, three of Kentucky’s seven losses this season came against Auburn and Tennessee, teams it won’t have to worry about facing in the tournament. With that in mind, I question whether there’s a defense that can contain a potent Kentucky offense from this region.
Who knows what team emerges from the top half of this bracket, but I’m confident Kentucky does no worse than a regional final run.