Having shared my best group futures bets for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, it’s time to turn our attention to the individual matches.
Wednesday’s card features a number of high-profile matchups at Austin Country Club. A few notables are Scottie Scheffler vs. Ian Poulter, Matt Fitzpatrick vs. Tommy Fleetwood and Keegan Bradley vs. Jordan Spieth.
But which matches should bettors focus their attention on across the 32-match betting board? He are my two best bets for Wednesday’s slate. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet No. 1: Abraham Ancer Tie, No Bet (-130) vs. Bubba Watson
Watson advanced further in this tournament than 🦋Ancer last year, but the underlying metrics suggest the Mexican international was the superior player.
Per , Watson gained a total of +0.91 strokes on the field for the duration of the event while Ancer amassed +1.42 strokes on last year’s field at this same venue.
Beyond that trend, there are multiple other factors supporting an Ancer victory Wednesday. First ♚is that my model projects Ancer to fꩲit this course by a much wider margin. He arrives at Austin Country Club fourth overall in my 36-round model while Watson ranks 57th in the same projection.
Additionally, Ancer ranks third or better in the field in SG: APP, SG: T2G and Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds. In those three categories, Watson sits 60th, 53rd and 41st, res𒅌pectively.
Lastly, Ancer has the superior historical precedent in terms of his record at Pete Dye designs. He’s gained strokes on the field both tee-to-green and in approach in two events this year at Dye designs while Watson has historically struggled at Pete Dye designs.
Ancer should be able to keep his ball in good positions off the tee, while Watson’s tendency to produce some wayward drives should provide an advantage to the favorite Wednesday.
Best Bet No. 2: Dustin Johnson (-135) vs. Mackenzie Hughes
The one caveat to note with this bet is that ♓a tie is its own outcome — hence the discount on Johnson — so in the event the match finishes level this would lose instead of push.
But, I have enough faith in Johnson that I’m willing to assume that risk. The two-time major winner enters Austin Country Club eighth in my 36-round model projection while Mackenzie Hughes doesn’t arrive in the best form. He has missed two straight cuts at the Players Championship and the Valspar Championship and has only made two cuts in 2022.
Furthermore, the Cana൩dian has lost strokes off the tee in six straight events. Put all that together and Hughes sits 58th in my 36-round model.
The one category in which Hughes does rank out slightly well — 20th in strokes gained: putting — will likely be mitigated by Johnson’s putting on Bermuda grass. Over his last 36 rounds, Johnson sits fifth in the same category and has gained strokes putting in four straight events at Dye designs.
But the biggest discrepancy b🐟etween these two players comes in the Birdies or Better Gained category. Johnson ranks first in the fi♏eld in that category while Hughes sits all the way down in 53rd.
If Hughes is unable to resolve his issues off the tee, I don’t expect he’ll have many chances at birdie. As a result, I expect a reliable performance from DJ, especially considering his 5-0-0 record at the Ryder Cup this past fall and the fact he’s a past winner at this event.