Golf picks: Valero Texas Open betting model strategy

Only a week separates golf bettors from the inaugural major of 2022, but this week’s focus is the Valero Texas Open.

Taking place at TPC San Antonio, the Masters’ tune-up features a number of high-profile names. Rory McIlroy (+800) sits atop the futures board while defending champion Jordan Spieth arrives in the Lone Star State at +1400. Next are 2019 Texas Open winner Corey Conners and defending Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama (+1800).

But, before giving you some golfers to back for the event, I’m going to take the opportunity to share insights into my modeling strategy for this event. Essentially, these factors are what I use to sort out the field and make informed betting decisions.

Without further delay, 𓆉here are the factors and percentages for ▨the Valero Texas Open.

Factor #1 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (23 percent emphasis)

Bettors will see this factor stressed quite frequently week-in and week-out on the PGA Tour mostly because it’s a strong indicator of success.

At this specific tournament, though, there’s even more reason to include this stat. Two straight winners – Spieth and Conners – have ranked fifth or better in strokes-gained approach for the week while three of the last four winners have placed second or better in the SG: Approach category winner.

In terms of the derivatives markets, this stat also carr🎉ies signific⛄ance. For two straight years, all of the top five in terms of SG: Approach have finished inside the top-10.

Here are the top-five entering this tournament i🍨n terms of SG: Approach over the last 36⛄ rounds, as well as their betting odds:

1. Luke Donald (+15000)
2. Russell Knox (+6600)
3. Cameron Percy (+15000)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
5. Mito Pereira (+500)

Factor #2 – Par-5 Scoring between 550 & 600 Yards (19 percent emphasis)

TPC San Antonio is a very interesting course in that it features some short holes (more on that later) as well as some lengthy Par 5’s.

The four such holes on the course – holes No. 2, 8, 14 and 18 – account for nearly 32 percent of the entire course length. Plus, all measure longer than 550 yards while both holes on the front nine are just north of 600 yards.

We know the Tour’s best have a ton of distance in their weaponries, so making birdies on these holes will be critical for success this week. That said, I don’t want to place *too much* emphasis on it as there are definitely other scoring opportunities available.

Here are the leaders foꦅr that category as well as their betting odds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2800)
2. Rory McIlroy (+800)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
4. Beau Hossler (+10000)
5. Doug Ghim (+6600)

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Factor #3 – Par 4 Scoring between 350 & 400 Yards (23 percent emphasis)

Against the backdrop of some quite long Par 5’s, there are simultaneously very short Par 4’s that lend themselves to scoring.

I’m thinking about five holes in particular that either fit or come close to fitting this designation: numbers five (342 yards), six (403 yards), eleven (405 yards), twelve (410 yards), and seventeen (347 yards).

The reason for the big emphasis? Four of those five holes fall within the nine easiest holes on the course while all five ranked as the five easiest par 4’s in last year’s event. For those reasons, and ability to score on these holes will be critical for success in terms of both outright and derivatives.

Here are the top five in this category ente�❀�ring the week, along with their betting odds:

1. Jhonattan Vegas (+5000)
2. Lanto Griffin (+8000)
3. Matt Kuchar (+6600)
4. Rory McIlroy (+800)
5. Martin Trainer (+30000)

Factor #4 – Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green (20 percent emphasis)

Much like SG: Approach, this category has proven very importan⭕t in ter🍰ms of deciding the winner.

All of the last four winners were no worse than third in this category for the event while three of the last four finished inside the top two. While distance isn’t critical at TPC San Antonio – there’s only a 13 percent correlation with SG: total for driving distance, per – but I at least want players to be in good positions.

Plus, the fairways are slightly narrower than average – 30.3-yard width on average, again per datagolf.com – so this will help sort golfers by accuracy.

Here areꦆ the top five in this category entering the week as well as their betting odds:

1. Luke List (+5000)
2. Rory McIlroy (+800)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
4. Russell Knox (+6600)
5. Corey Conners (+1800)

Factor #5 – Proximity to the Hole from between 150 & 175 Yards (15 percent emphasis)

This gives some added specificity to the approach numbers, especially considering most approach shots arriveꦚ from this distance.

Per datagolf.com, 20 percent of all approach shots ranged between 150 and 175 yards, with 250+ yards coming in second at 18.7 percent. But, the ranges on either side of this mark – between 125 & 150 and between 175 & 200 yards – account for only eight percent more combined.

The only reason I’m not placing a lot of emphasis on this category is to protect against someone getting a hot putter and hitting from distance. Ultimately, all of these players are capable of making putts, so I don’t think this category will decide the championship.

That said, here are the top five in this category a🐽long with their betting o💮dds:

1. Adam Svensson (+15000)
2. Martin Laird (+8000)
3. Luke Donald (+15000)
4. Russell Knox (+6600)
5. Doug Ghim (+6600)