Huge fight card this weekend as UFC 274 takes on a sold-out Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. UFC 274 features two huge title fights – including Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oli𓆏veira – .
Last week, I took some time off from the betting game to go on vacation. If you are wondeꦇring where I stand on my MMA 🦩picks for the New York Post, my straight bet record is 8-4.
For four of the five weeks that we’ve done this, I put together a parlay for a little extra fun. I am 1-3 on the parlay but these are long shots; the one we hit was +636.
Total, if you b🐼et one unit on everything in my weekly MMA betti🎐ng articles, you would be sitting on 13.76 units of profit in just five weeks.
There are plenty of bets that I like for UFC 274, so without further adieu, let’s get started with the UFC 274 preview and breakdown.
UFC 274 best bets and predictions
Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje prediction
An amazing fight is on tap for the main event. Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is the rarest form of fighter.
He was once looked down upon as a quitter — tapping to strikes against Paul Felder — and someone who can’t live up to the hype. Fast forward a few years and he is at the top of the game.
Olivဣiera might be the best grapple🌠r we have seen in the UFC to date. With that, this fight is pretty binary in terms of the breakdown. If Oliviera gets this fight to the mat, he should be able to submit Gaethje in 60 seconds or less.
Gaethje has a wicked striking game catapulted by the best leg-kicking strategy we have seen. Hi🅰s coach, Trevor Whittman, is probably the best mastermind we have in the sport today. He will have a strategy to deal with Oliveira.
In terms of the best bet and what I am betting – Gaethje to win in under 2.5 rounds +325 on PointsBet – this is a ridiculous line that encompasses 𒆙75% or more of his win condition. I expect Gaethje’s striking to car🐻ry him to victory here.
However, if you were to bet both Gaethje and Oliveira to win in under 2.5 rounds (+200) on PointsBet, you actually be getting -131 on the under 2.5 rounds prop. This number is 56.71% implied whereas the normal line (-160) is 61.54% implied. You’re getting 5% of implied value if you were to bet it this way which is gigantic in the sports betting game.
Oliviera vs. Gaethje best bet: Gaethje wins in under 2.5 rounds +325 (PointsBet)
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Joe Lauzon vs. Donald Cerrone prediction
Howdy, partner – I say with tears in my eyes.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is one of my favorite fighters of all time. The man is an outright legend that is just too far beyond his prime to really be considered for any bets as a favorite.
His chin is all but gone, he has next to no p🐓ower in his hands, and frankly, he can grapple and not much else anymore. Unfortunately, his opponent Joe Lauzon can also grapple. So this fight comes🦩 down to who can win the standing exchanges.
I am sadly predicting a Joe Lauzon KO in this fight. If you follow me on Twitter, I gave this play🧔 out earlier in the week and the odds have since drastically fallen as money comes in. My play remains the same, Lauzon wins by KO/TKO.
UFC 274 best bet: Joe Lauzon by KO/TKO /R1 or 2 KO +550 (FanDuel)
UFC 274 parlay +1263: Williams/Brown GTD (+146) + Oliviera/Gaethje ‘Under’ 2.5 rounds (-164) + Lauzon ML (+146) + Shogun/OSP GTD (-250)
This bet was placed on FanDuel Sportsbook which is offering UFC parlay insurance for 4+ leg parlays up to $25 for all users. You bet I’ll be using this one!