We’re less than 24 hours away from the start of the 2022 RBC Canadian Open, giving us a few final opportunities to present plays.
Tuesday we focused on our three favorite derivative bets for the tournament. Now, we’re turning our attention to the matchup markets. This week I have identified three head-to-head markets — two of which involve Canadians — that give bettors a great chance of cashing a ticket.
So, without further ado, here are my best matchup bets for the RBC Canadian Open at St. George’s Golf & Country Club. All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1: Nick Taylor (-110) over David Lipsky
Not only is Ta🌌ylor playing in his home country this week, but my model gives him a great chance at having su⛄ccess.
Over his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Taylor rates out eighth overall in the field. That’s largely due in part to his performance at the most important statistical measures — he’s sixth in the field in SG: approach, 10th in opportunities gained and second in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.
He’s also a steady driver of the golf ball (38th in good drives gained, 37th in fairways gained) and has played decently on Par 5’s in that span (33rd in the field in SG: Par 5’s). Plus, in the last Canadian Open, Taylor finished T-27th. He arrives in Canada in decent form with his irons — he’s gained strokes on approach in five of his last six events.
On the flip-side, Lipsky enters this tournament average at-best. He’s 60th overall in my 24-round model and rates out higher than 35th in only two statistical measures. Plus, he’s 104th in three-putt avoidance and 91st in SG: Par 5’s. Further, although he’s gaining a decent amount of opportunities (43rd in the field), he’s not necessarily converting those (75th in birdies or better gained).
For those reasons, expect Taylor to get the head-to-head v🐻icto๊ry over Lipsky.
Best Bet #2: Corey Conners (-120) over Harold Varner III
Conners’ derivative prices are (understandably) low, but this is a nice way to back the Canadian.
Conners is coming off a strong finish at the Memorial (T-13th), Conners rates out very well in my statistical model. He’s first in the field over his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards and, in his last four made cuts on such courses, has never finished worse than 22nd. As for the modeling, though, Conners rates out 10th or better in all of the following categories: good drives gained (2nd), SG: approach (5th), opportunities gained (5th) and three-putt avoidance (10th).
He’s also a good situational player on specific holes. Conners rates out 15th in the field on SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and is 26th in the field in SG: Par 5’s.
Although Varner III has strong approach numbers (4th in the field) and avoids three-putts (3rd in the field), there are concerning signs elsewhere. He’s 120th in the field in fairways gained, 100th in putting between five and 10 feet and 96th in SG: Par 5’s.
At a course where those three factors are extremely important,🥀 expect♑ Conners to notch the head-to-head win here.
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Best Bet #3: Aaron Rai (-130) over Matthias Schwab
The best way I know how to describe Rai: steady.
This is a player that won’t make a lot of mistakes, a statement further evidenced by his underlying statistics. He’s sixth in the field in fairways gained, 16th in good drives gained and 21st in opportunities gained. Additionally, he’s 34th in the field in SG: approach, 35th in three-putt avoidance and 20th in the field in SG: Par 5’s.
There are two areas of concern with Rai — his putting has proven shaky from birdie range (113th in putting – 10 to 15 feet) and is poor coming out of the sand (105th in sand saves). However, combine all those metrics together and Rai is still 16th overall over his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.
As for Schwab, he has the advantage over Rai in both SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and in SG: Par 5’s, but has concerning metrics elsewhere. He’s 91st in the field in fairways gained, 90th in opportunities gained and 55th in SG: approach. Further, he struggles to avoid three-putts (67th in the field) and isn’t a great putter either (43rd in putting – five to 10 feet, 86th in putting – 10 to 15 feet).
For all those reasons, I’m happy to lay the juice with Rai, who has made the cut in five of his last six events. Schwab, on the other hand, has either missed the cut or flirted with the cut line in three of his last four outings.