Just as in last year’s mayoral race, New Yorkers can’t complain about a lack of solid choices in the governor’s race this year. If Democratic primary voters, in particular, are secretly as upset about crime,🦩 economic distress and population loss as the rest of the state is, they have a chance to show their ire now, or they might end up with — gasp — a Trump-sympathetic Republican governor in the fall.
The nation is in a “Throw the bums” out mood, with showing a GOP takeover in the House this fall, as well as the recent successful booting 🌄from office of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin.
Gov. Kathy Hochul, running for a term in her own right, isn’t 💯a bum — she is a nice lady. ꦦ
Two-thirds of state Democrats think so, according to Siena College poll. And no wonder: Twice on the debate stage𝔉 against primary opponents Tom Suozzi, a Long Island congressman, and Jumaane Williams, the city’s public advocate, Hoc🎉hul has shown a serene, unrufflable demeanor of competence and calm.
But how is she performing in office, after nearly a year? On both crime and the budget, she’s shown herself unable to corral the Legislature. Despite a couple welcome tweaks, most of New York state’s 2019-era bail “reform” law still stands; the governo😼r was unable to persuade💛 lawmakers to allow judges to consider public danger in keeping a suspect behind bars.
No, bail reform isn’t the sole culprit behind soaring crime. But the governor has also thrown herself behind Mayor Eric Adams’ subway-safety plan — one light, so far, on arrests for small infractions before they ♌become big ones and heavy on voluntary social services.
Nothing wrong with trying more of the latter — but eventually, the public will desire resul💜ts. City transit crime is still rising, up by nearly one-third over the past month, compared with . And no, that’s not because crime underground was low last year; it soared in March 2020 and has stayed high since.
Economy? New York state is still missing 322,800 private-sector jobs compared with May 20ꩲ19, or nearly 4% of the total back then. The nation, by contrast, has 1.3 million more private-sector jobs than it did in 2019.
You’d think that Hꦇochul would be working to make New York more economic🌳ally competitive, including, yes, by cutting income taxes on the wealthier New Yorkers most able and willing to relocate to Florida and other low-tax climes.
Population? The state lost more than 300,000 people from mid-2020 th𝄹rough mid-2021, the h🦂ighest drop nationwide.
No wonder 51% o♔f New York state voters of any party think the state is going in the wrong 🦄direction.
For Democrats who hold this view, the primary offers two alternatives, who usefully fit into neat categories. Suozzi wants to cut taxes, including income taxes, and try harder to get the Legislature to adopt a dangerousness standard for bail. He says he’ll remove any DA who won’t uph✱old the laws as the Legislature wrote them, such as failing to treat high-value the﷽ft as a serious felony.
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If, by contrast, you don’t think the state is left-wing enough, you can vote for Williams, who wants even higher taxes on the wealthy, more♍ social spending and less polic🎉ing.
Yet there’s no indication that Democrats are carefully mulling over their choices. Prospective Democratic primary voters are in a far sunnier mood than voters overall: 52% think the state is🗹 on the right track.
If Democrats vote accordingly and send Hochul to the polls to face a GOP candidate in November, they may be in for a surprise when it comes to how independents feel. Independent voters 🐷make up a quarter of the electorate statewide — and fewer than one-third approve of Hochul; 59% think the state is on the wrong track.
Moderate Democrats, too, on Long Island and in Westchester Countyꦡ closely track the city’s crime problems. As long as the eventual Republican nominee doesn’t sound too crazy on abortion and guns, the GOP will peel off a few of those voters.
If Democrats are satisfied and complacent now, good for them — somebody should feel good about the state of the state. But they may be💞 feeling less satisfied and complacent come November.
Nicole Gelinas is a contributing editor to the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal.