Rocket Mortgage Classic predictions: Matchup bets, golf picks for Thursday

Yesterday, we covered our favorite derivative bets for the Rocket Mort💟gage Classic. Today, we turn our attention to the matchup markets.

Using both my statistical model and players’ relevant course history, I’ve identified three markets that either feature an underdog I have rated as a favorite or a favorite that should feature higher juice.

With that said, let’s dive into my favorite matchup bets this week. All odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic predictions, matchup bets, and golf picks

Best Bet #1 – Scott Stallings (-105) over Si Woo Kim

Odds via BetMGM

Not only has Si Woo’s game fallen off a bit of late, but he lacks good course history at Detroit Golf Club.

In three appearances at this event, he’s missed the cut once and registered a T-58th and T-57th in the two remaining appearances. In fact, Stallings has bested him each year at the Rocket Mortgage, posting finishes of 64th-39th-25th in the last three years.

The recent form edge also goes to Stallings, who has two consecutive top-10 finishes and three top-10’s in his last five starts. On the flip-side, Si Woo has missed the cut in three of his last four and four of his last seven starts.

In terms of the modeling, Stallings once again carries the edge. Over the last 12 rounds, Stallin♐gs ranks 29th overall in the field, largely dictated by his eighth-place ranking in SG: Approach. In that projection, Si Woo sits 41st.

But, if you expand the sample to each player’s last 24 rounds, the advantage increases for Stallings. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 12th in the field against a 35th-placed rating for Si Woo.

For those reasons, I would have Stallings rated as a slight favorite in this head-to-head 𒁃and would back him u▨p to -120.

Best Bet #2 – Webb Simpson (-112) over Adam Scott

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

This looks like an excellent sell-high spot on Scott, who, despite recording two consecutive top-15 finishes, has never played this event🎃. On the flip-side, Simpson owns a previous top-10 finish in Detroit.

It’s also worth noting that Simpson’s affinity for Donald Ross course designs. Over his last 50 rounds on Ross tracks, Simpson leads this field in SG: Total. Just over his last 24 rounds on Ross designs, the 2012 U.S. Open champion sits seventh in SG: Total.

But, a large part of my confidence in Simpson is derived from my statistical modeling. Over the last 24 rounds, Simpson rates out 18th overall in the field while Scott enters the tournament in 57th. Shrink the sample down to both players’ last 12, and the advantage still belongs to Simpson (11th vs. 78th).

The key difference between these players is how they tend to perform on short par 4s. Over his last 12 rounds, Simpson ranks ninth in the field in SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards. Meanwhile, Scott ranks 148th in the same category.

If Simpson can gain on the four Par 5’s like he did last year — albeit on his way to a missed cut — expect this advantage to prove key in deciding this head-to-head. For all those reasons, back Simpson up to -125.

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Best Bet #3 – Maverick McNealy (-126) over Gary Woodland

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

Much like Simpson, ๊McNealy has demonstrated a fondness for Ross design🔜s.

Although he only brings eight rounds of experience at Ross tracks to Detroit Golf Club, he’s eighth in SG: Total amongst this field in those rounds. Crucially, he ranks fourth in the field in SG: Putting over those eight rounds while ranking fifth in bogey avoidance and 13th in birdies or better gained.

Meanwhile, Woodland ranks 73rd on Ross designs over his last eight rounds. Even if you triple tꦑhe sample size to include his last 24 roun🍸ds on Ross tracks, Woodland sits 71st in SG: Total and 75th in SG: Putting.

Although it’s slightly concerning McNealy ranks 125th in SG: Approach in my 12-round model, my concern is lessened given he has gained on approach in two appearances at Detroit GC. He also owns a great course history here as he owns two top-25s in two starts, including a T-8th in 2020.

He also bests Woodland by 31 spots in my 12-round projection (32nd vs. 63rd) and carries an 82-spot advantage in birdies or better gained (8th vs. 90th). Plus, Woodland has not fared well at Detroit Golf Club, as he’s missed the cut in both appearances at this event.

If McNealy can correct his approach game, expect another strong finish for him this week. In terms of this matchup, I’ll back him up to -135.