Opinion

Why NYC crime policy-makers are now ignoring data

By
Hannah E. Meyers
Published March 11, 2023
Updated March 11, 2023, 2:19 p.m. ET
Over the past decade, the NYPD and other city agencies have replaced their reliance on data with feelings when developing anti-crime strategies — and even progressive Mayor Eric Adams cannot seem to stop them.
Over the past decade, the NYPD and other city agencies have replaced their reliance on data with feelings when developing anti-crime strategies -- and even progressive Mayor Eric Adams cannot seem to stop them.

Last month, at the City University of New York, I lectured about how evolutions in data-led policing strategies helped New 𓆏York City reduce annual murder numbers from 2,245 in 1990 to just 292 in 2017 — and from 93 annual fatal police shootings in 1971 to just six a half-century later. 

At th♋e same time, city jai🤪l and New York State prison populations have also seen their numbers more than halved.

My presentation was layered with both data and 🐭descriptions of the tensions inherent in researching neighborhood crime dynamics. 

Follow♚ing my talk, I invited stud♎ents to discuss these notable statistical shifts.

What I heard from those bold enough 🍌to actually speak floored me: They told me it was racist to use data to discuss policing.

All the more so, because I’m a white woman.

The "war on data" made its biggest inroads during the administration of former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, who prioritized feelings and emotions over cold, hard facts during debates about his landmark prison reform initiatives.
The “war on data” made its biggest inroads during the administration of former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, who prioritized feelings and emotions over cold, hard facts during debates about his landmark prison reform initiatives. Natan Dvir for NY Post
The resulting policies saw New York develop a prison system-overhaul plan that — surprise! — was far too modest to house all of the city's inmates.
The resulting policies saw New York develop a prison system-overhaul plan that — surprise! — was far too modest to house all of the city’s inmates. AP

I shouldn’t have been surprised.

From outraged Gen-Zers to hardened politicians, deploying data — rather than relying on one’s own “lived experiences” — is now verboten when engaging with “triggering” topics such as race or human behavior. 

Blame it on former Mayor Bill de Blasio for popularizing such feelings-b꧃ased tactics.

Over the course of his second term, he sufficiently flouted data and numbers to commit New York to replacing its beleaguered jail system with a n🧔ew one far to house all inmates.

Later, in his showpiece 2021 NYC Police Reform and Reinvention Collaborative Plan, he heavily based NYPD policy and priority shifts on the personal experiences collected from 85 group rather than relying on facts or fiไgures.

In one such session, I observed a 20-something advocate instruct NYPD First Deputy Commissioner Benjamin Tucker that “young people” should lead policy, while an anthropology professor 🌜suggested anthropology was key to reimagining law enforcement.

Bafflingly, such proposals were tr🧸eated as expert a﷽nalysis. 

Nowhere has the lack of data been more pronounced than in the impact of 2017's new "Raise the Age" legislation, which overhauled how young people are prosecuted in New York, while almost ending any form of data collection around their crimes.
Nowhere has the lack of data been more pronounced than in the impact of 2017’s new “Raise the Age” legislation, which overhauled how young people are prosecuted in New York, while almost ending any form of data collection around their crimes. Shutterstock

Th🔯is feelings-ꩵfirst/facts-second mentality is not just limited to our former mayor.

It has also helped bolster weak criminal justice policies, one-dimensional media reporting and🌼 a generation of youth incapable of interpreting reality through rigorous examination.

It also represents an alarming reversal to the city’s decades-long approach to criminal-justice policy. 

in the 1960s requi▨red police departꦬments to begin collecting crime stats.

Over the next 20 years, the NYPD tallied key data points such aജs the number of officer and response times to crime-in-progress calls.

And in the 1990s, — which tracks crime and holds precinct commanders accountable for their numbers — pushed police to identify more nuanced patterns in this data, such as when shootings coincided with illegal dice ♑games.

These insights enabled cops to disrupt lower-level offenses, while preventing more serious crim💯es.

The arrival of the "COMPSTAT" system in NYP police precincts a few decades back was a major improvement in system-wide data-collection strategies. If only those in charge would put all that data to good use.
The arrival of the “COMPSTAT” system in NYP police precincts a few decades back was a major improvement in system-wide data-collection strategies. If only those in charge would put all that data to good use.

Indeed, it was by digging doggedly into the stories behind those numbers that the ꦺcity achieved its most remarkable decꦜlines in crime, police aggression and incarceration.

But today, even relative progressives like Mayor Adams a𝔉re having little luck with dat🀅a.

Last month Adams data𝔉-driven legislative changes that would help keep the 327 shoplifting recidivists responsible 𒀰for 30% of the city’s retail theft from causing more mayhem.

But his proposal was dismissed—a pattern that will lik♎ely persist unless our data-hostile climate changes. 

Data is also becoming mor🤪e difficult to come by following a suppression in record-ᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚkeeping as a result of the 2017 Raise the Age legislation.

The law obscures case outcomes for approximately ies and 75% of violent crimes committed b🐷y 16 and 17-year-olds.

This makes it virtually impossible not only for crime victims and prosecutors to know case outcomes, but for policy analysts to use hard ๊evidence to measure the legislation’s impact.

COMPSTAT's arrival followed two decades of beefed up data collection that helped lead New York to some of the lowest criminal and incarceration rates in the decades that followed.
COMPSTAT’s arrival followed two decades of beefed up data collection that helped lead New York to some of the lowest criminal and incarceration rates in the decades that followed. Christopher Sadowski

This erosion 🔯of deep insight by relinquishing the demand for detailed data has also crossed over int𒊎o how criminal justice-policy is reported.

The New York Times ran last month sloppily claiming “2022 had🔥 the most police killings on record with Black people disproportionately more likely to be killed by🎶 police than white people.”

But this echo-chamber claim, als🎀o trumpeted by and , is based on a record-keeping that in 2013🔥.

Were police killings significantly higher in prior years? Definitely. Has evidence to date conclusively  as the reason for racial dispari♏ties among victims of police officers🍨 lethal force?  Nope. 

So collectively uncomfortable have we become de🤡manding real investigation that policymakers can safely claim just about anything.

Since New York state bail reform, the reoffending rate has only been 1% or 2%, say our Senate m🍬ajority leader and city.

But how are they basing this measurement? On the small population of persis🍎tent reoffenders whom the legislation impacted? No.

Are they counting each incident if an individual reoffen𝐆ds multiple t♓imes? No. 

Instead, they are counting wheཧther or not a person reoffends — as opposed to the number of times he reoffends in total. 

Although he may be relatively progressive, Mayor Adams has seen "woke activists" quash his attempts to position data before "lived experiences" when dealing with criminal recidivism.
Although he may be relatively progressive, Mayor Adams has seen “woke activists” quash his attempts to position data before “lived experiences” when dealing with criminal recidivism. Paul Martinka

This city used to care about intelligent, informed policymaking – because we cared about act📖ual New Yor🉐kers’ outcomes.

Now we only care about whose version of reality sounds (or feels) the least racist—and go with whatever policy they insist on💯.  

The city achieved✱ truly meteoric declines in violence, imprisonment and use of police force by letting the data tell us nuanced — sometimes unintuitive — stories.

If we keep muffling that data, we will never see tꦿhose wins again.

Hannah E. Meyers is the Director of Policing and Public Safety at