For much oą¶£f the offseason, the Lions have been the darlings of the betting āmarket.
They drew upwards of 99 percent of over bets on their preseason win total, and they were among the most-bet teams to win the Super Bowl, the NFC, and the NFC North.
A year later, bāetting itself may end up being their undoing.
Detroit was the biggest loser of Fridayās bombshell news from the NFL league office, which suspended five players ā including four Lions ā for violating the leagueās gambling policy.
The headliner was 2022 first-round receiver Jameson Williams, who will miss the ąµ²firsą²t six games of this upcoming season for betting on college football while at the team facilities.
The same punishment applies to fellow receiver Stanley Berryhill, whź§ile receiver Quintez Cephus and safety C.J.š Moore were suspended for the entire season for betting on NFL games during the 2022 campaign.
The team has since released Cephus and Moore.
None of that has deterred bettoš¦rs from once again tripping over themselves tš¼o back Detroit in the futures market.
Detroit Lions 2023 odds
Entering last week, the Lions were the most significant liability to win the Super Bowl (20/1) at BetMGM, where theyād also drawn nearly 50 percent of all bet slips to win the NFCāØ championship (+850) with the shortest odds to win the NFC North (+130).
Thoseš odds remained uncāhanged in the wake of Fridayās news, as Detroit looks poised to be the bettorsā choice for the second straight offseason.
That doesnāt mean you should join the fray.
On paper, the Lions seemingly didnāt lose much: Williams, Cephus and Berryhill combined for three catches for 56 yards in 2022, while Moore (12 tackles)šøš · did most of his damage on special teams.
Still, Williams was expected to take a sizablš±e leap in his second season for an offense that ranked fifth in DVOA in 2022.
Now, heāll have to endure aš¬ delayed start for the second consecutive season, which will put undue pressure on spot starter Kalif Raymond (616 yards) and recent signee Marvin Jones (529) ā whose output last season was his worst in five years ā to fill the void left by Williams and offseason departure DJ Chark (502).
This team wilšl also have to account fą¹or the loss of running back Jamaal Williams, a locker room favorite whose 1,066 rushing yards and NFL-best 17 rushing touchdowns helped propel this offense to new heights in 2022.
Heās since been replaced by David Montgomery, whose career 3.9 YPC average highlights his inability to break through aź§s a true impact player through four professional seasons.
Hereās the dirtyš ŗ secret about this team: Detroit was a fade candidate even before those suspensions, which have lessened the margin of error for a group that was already being priced near its ceiling by an overzealous betting market.
While the Lions finished with a respectable 9-8ā record, they actually finished the season with negative net yards per play (-0.3), a common way bettors assess a teamās relative power rating.
Thatās entirely due to their lousy defense, which ranked dead last in oš¦pponent yards per play (6.2) and 31st in opponešønt drive success rate (75.1 percent).
It was a similar story with their overall DVOA raź¦nks: Detroit finished fifth on offense and 28th on defenź¦se, and ranked dead last in game-to-game variance.
The Lions also scored six of their nine wins against non-plšayoff teams in 2022, finishing with a 3-6 record againstš¼ the 14 teams in the postseason field.
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All of that paints the pictź¦¬ure of a team with a dramatically wide range of outcomes, and bettors seļæ½ļæ½em entirely concerned with just one side of that spectrum based on the Lionsā current pricing in the futures market.
Thatās a classic way to fall into the pitfalls of public bettą¹ing hype, especially with those prices remaining unmoved byšÆ Fridayās shocking news.
Itāll take an inspired effort for this offense to sustain top-five production, especially after losing three receiverš¼s in one fell swoop.
And Iād rather not be among those swept up inš Detroištās betting bonanza.
