We’re two full days removed from the final rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, and oddsmakers at BetMGM are a🙈lready taking bets on this year’s Rookie ꧂of the Year races.
And boy, are there some interesting prices among the earlꦜy offerings.
That’s especially ﷽true on the offensive end, where Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (+350) opens as the favorite ahead of the top two picks in the draft, Carolina’s Bryc𒁏e Young (+500) and Houston’s C.J. Stroud (+650).
Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+700), Lions rusher J꧟ahmyr Gibbs (+900) and Colts passer Anthony Richardson (+900) are the only others dealing at 15/1 or shorter.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and picks
I get why Robinson is the early favorite based ♕simply on his talent and potential f🃏or box-score success.
That said, this feels like far too aggressive of a price for a running back in a♏ crowded offense that still lacks a high-end qua🏅rterback.
The Falcons’ attack exceeded expectations last year and s﷽till finished 15th in touchdown rate (11.5 percent) and drive success rate (71.6 percent); if that doesn’t improve, Robinson’s chances for elite production could be overstated here.
Instead, I’m intrigued by this𓃲 opening price for Young, who will take the reins of a Panthers team with a sneaky shot at the playoffs.
Based on head coach Frank Reich’s♉ comments this offseason and after the draft, Carolina is clearly committed to building a quick-hitting ✤aerial attack that should be well-suited to Young’s strengths as a “point guard” of this offense.
While someone like Richardson may have more upside at 𝄹a longer priཧce — and he’s worth a bet in this market, too — Young has a much higher floor in his first year in the pros.
And as we’ve seen in recent years, even above-average play across a full 16 or 17 games is enough for a rookie quarterback to beat out a highly productive position player in this m🧜arket.
We’ve also seen a resurgence from wide receivers, who have cashed ꦫin each of the last two seasons.
I’d be leary to lay such a short price on Smith-Njigba as a No. 3 receiver in Seattle, but it could be worth taking a 20/1 shot on the Ravens’🎉 Zay Flowers or the Chargers’ Quentin Johnston — two home-run hitters who should carve out key roles in two of the most exp♒losive offenses in football.
Areౠ we sure Will Levis isn’t worth a flier at 30/1 odds?🍰
There’s a reason the ♋polarizing passer fell to the second round, but the Titans sure don’t seem committed to Ryan Tannehill, who could save the team nearly $30 million if he’s not on the roster by Week 1.
Even if the veteran quarte💙rback sticks around, Levis certainly has the arm taཧlent to force his way onto the field and into contention for this award.
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If you’re looking for an even bigger long shot, keep your eye on Dolphins back Devon Achane (40/1), who ran the fastest 40-yard dash (4.32 seconds) o🔴f any offensive player in t🥂his year’s draft.
The former Texas A&M has three-down potential and might even return kick𓄧s, too, and his electric speed makes him an ideal fit in Mike McDaniel’s frenetic offense.
In the end, the winner will probably be one൲ of the top three quarterbacks or top two rushers, but Young and Richardson are the only ones among that group whose early odds fairly consider the challenges of their situations.
If you’re determined to bet this market, target those two with an eye on any of the other long shots mentioned in a race that could surprise by season’s end🎀.
