Green tax credits in Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act could cost US $1.2 trillion
That’s a lot of green.
Environmentally-focused tax credits in President Bidenās Inflation Reduction Act are poised to cost taxpayers as much as $1.2 trillion over the next decaš de, acš¹cording to experts and recent cost analyses.
Producers are apāparently cashing in on the sweeping climate and energy bill, which includes generous subsidies for manufacturing electric vehicles, batteries, and wind and solašr energy initiatives.
In September of last year, one month after the law passed Congress, the nonpartisan the various energy subsidies coupled with new taxes on corporations and high earners would yield $738 billion in total revenue ā while its climate and energy provisions would cost “just” $391 billion out of $437 billion in new spending.
But recent aš nalyses have pegged the cost of investing in renewable energy as far higher.
In March, the legislation will eventually cost ą·“three times the initiaź§l estimate: $1.2 trillion.
Meanwhile, a draft analysis argued the pź¦ŗrice tag for the climate provisions will hit $1.2 trillion by 2040 and $780 billion in the next decadļ·½e.
Those increases would end up hiking deficits by $216 billion between 2022 and 2031, according to a January estimate from the White House’s own Office of Management and Budget.
āItās the electric vehicles tšhat overwhelmingly drive the shift from šøsurpluses to deficits with this legislation,ā Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told The Post.
āThe main change is that the electric vehicle incentives that were originally scored at $14 billion are ānow estimated by Goldman Sachs and Brookings to cost $390 billion,ā he said. āSo that turned a $230 deficit-reducer into a moreź¦° than $200 billion deficit-increaser ā according to the White Houseās own budget office.ā
According to E.J. Antoni, a rź§esearch fellow at the Heritage Foundation, the CBO analysis also failź¦ed to anticipate how the lawās green subsidies would create incentives for producers.
Those incentives have spurred some companies Ü«to invest $150 billion collectively in clean energy production, .
Research from George Mason Universityās Mercatus Center also battery manufacturing tax breaks and found those costs aź§lone could surge to nearly $200 billion, compared with the original CBO estimate of around $30 billion.
āIt wouldnāt be the first time CBO was wildly wrong,” snarked one source close to the US Chamber of Commerce Thursday.
The revised forecasts have prompted Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who helped negotiate the bill, to accuse the Biden administration in March of improperly implementing the law, and later saying the presidentā and Democrats ābroke tš§heir word to the American public.ā
āLet me be very clear,ā he said in . āIf the Administration does not honor whatš they said they would do, and continue to liberalize what we are supposed to invest in over the next ten years, I will do everything in my power to prevent that from happening. And if they donāt changeź¦, then I would vote to repeal my own bill.ā
Theź¦ error has given ammunition to Manchinās 2024 challenger, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who has mocked the Democratās vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as āa real, real screw-up.ā
It has also heightened tense negotiations between the Biden White House and Houseā Republicš§ans, who passed a debt limit bill last week that would repeal almost all of the green tax credits from Manchinās legislation.