How we’re betting three college football matchups Saturday:
Kansas +10 vs. Oklahoma
I still think Oklahoma’s overvalued.
The Sooners are +10 in turnover margin ෴and have been lucky in big wins.
Take the Texas game.
They were outgained 527-486 but sq𓃲ueaked by thanks to a 3-0 turnover margin and an impr☂obable goal-line stand.
The Horns also committed nine penalties for 70 yards, compared to Oklahoma’s ♛four for 30.
The r🍃egressio൲n train hit Oklahoma last week as it almost dropped a home game to UCF, which has yet to win a Big 12 game.
The Jayhawks boast an explosive offense, ranking top-10 nationally in EPA per Play, even with backup📖 Jason Bean under center.
They should keep this game within single digits at home against the overinꦡflated Sooners.
Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia
I like this matchup for Florida.
The Gators’ defense is good at preventing inside rush and shorter passing plays, but they’re vul🐬nerable to explosiv🍌e plays.
Luckily, Georgia’s offense isn🔯’t very explosive, and the downfield passing attack could struggle without Brock Bowers.
Conversely, Georgia’s secondary is elitౠe but its rus♊h defense is middling.
If Florida’s elite running back duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne establish the run, it’ll open up play-action passing looks for Graham Mertz♒.
And Mertz is a play-action merchant. He’s completing more than 70 percent of his play-acti🍒on passes for more than nine yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.
But this handicap 🐷mostly com꧟es down to the situational spot.
Georgia is a corpse, sleepwalking through a cookie-cutte🐭r schedule. After consecutive national championships and with few marquee games, it’s hard for these young players to stay motivated.
As a result, Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS this season, letting most opponents keep the game relatively ♉close.
Meanwhiꩵle, Billy Napier is 19-6 ATS as an underdog in his coaching careeඣr, including 8-1 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog.
Kentucky +3.5 vs. Tennessee
Here’s another solid SEC situational spot.
Tennessee 🀅is coming off consecutive physical games against Texas A&M and Alabama. The Vols are likely fatigued heading into a second straight road game Saturday in Lexington.
Meanwhile, Kentucky had its bye last week, allowing some previously injure🥀d players to return to 100 percent.
Schematically, Kentucky has a decent match❀up.
The Vols boast a mediocre passing attack behind the inconsistent Joe Milton, instead leaning on an elite rushing attac💝k.
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Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they ran꧋k top 20 nationally in EPA per Rush and YPC allowed (3.1).
The Vols’ rush defense is also elite but vulnerable to explosive rushes.
Behind Ray Davis, who has the✨ sixth-most FBS rushes of 10 or more yards (26), the ‘Cats are second nationally in rush explosiveness.𓃲
Davis should break several big rushes, while the Vols run into a wall in a let💦down spot.
For what it’s worth, Mark Stoops is 20-11 against🐈 the spread against ranked opponents♋ in his coaching career.
Last week: 0-3 — Penn State (L), USC (L), Miami, Ohio (L)
2023 season record: 11-12