Teams with College Football Playoff aspirations are starting to play tight𝓰, the weather is beginning to get di✱cey and upsets are becoming more routine.
Among my college fo♓otb꧟all best bets for Week 10, I have one ranked matchup right off the bat that could produce a top-10 upset.
Let’s dive right in.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
The 118th Bedlam game could be the last, makiওng for an electric environment at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Pair that with the Cowboys’ inspired p🐬lay in the past month and you’ll start to understand why they’re a great situation play this week as a home underdog.
Between the lines, this g🎶ame will be in the hands of Ollie Gordon II.
The sophomore tailback has put the whole team on his back following aও humbling home loss to South Alabama in September. In the past five games, he’s rushed for 978 yards (195.6 ypg), scored nine total touchdowns and fumbled just once.
That shou♊ld be♓ very concerning for an Oklahoma defense that is leaking oil.
T♐he Sooners’ glaring weakness on defense has been their inability to limit big runs (105th in explosives allowed).
Gordon II, who🦹 has long runs of 75, 7𓂃1, 53 and 42 yards in recent games, is primed to explode. If he does, it’ll be up to the Pokes’ defense to do the rest of the work.
Oklahoma State has been a fantastic home ’dog under Mike Gundy in recent years, covering spreads at an 89 percent clip si♔nce 2016 (8-1 ATS).
Best Bet: OSU +6 (bet365)
Florida Atlantic vs. UAB (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Trent Di🎐lfer claimed this spring that God per𒁏suaded him to coach UAB. Apparently, the Big Guy upstairs didn’t specify that he wanted him to coach the defense, too.
The Blazers are 132nd (out of 133 FBS teams) in defensive success rate. There isn’t a wor🍸se run defense in America.
That’s great ne♛ws ꦦfor a balanced FAU offense that will lean on senior running back Larry McCammon III on Saturday.
🌱The difference in this game will be Daniel Richardson.
The FAU quarterback is a boom-or-bust player. In his last three꧒ starts, he’s pos🐻ted QBRs of 94.3, 10.4 and 79.6.
If he’s dialed in agꦺainst this lowly UAB defense, the Owls will win going away and keep their AAC title ho✨pes alive.
Best Bet: FAU -1(Caesars)
Georgia Southern vs. Texas State (5 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Much wasꦐ made in the offseason about the new clock rules in college football that did away with first-down stoppages before 𒆙the final two minutes of each half.
As a result, blindly backi🎃ng Unders has been more profitable than usual.
Only 59 teams (44.3%) at the FBS level have cashed more Overs than Unders this seaso✃n.
So when I target Overs, particularly ga♕mes with huge totals like this one, I need three conditions: Lightning-quick pace on both sides.
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Pass-happy offenses. Ghastly 🔯defenses. It’s a trifecta here between the Eagles and Bobcats.
Georgia Southern is second ﷽in plays per game atᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚ 81.1, and Texas State isn’t far behind at 75.6 (16th).
Davis Brin has attempted 45 or more passes in five of his last seven starts for GSU, and TSU’s T.J. Finley averages 37 attempts per game i𓃲n SBC play.
And finally, these defenses give up huge plays left and right. Georgia ꦏSouthern blitzesℱ a ton, and as a result, the Eagles give up explosive runs at the 119th-worst clip in the country.
Texas State is ev🍌en worse when it comes to defending big plays through the air (127th). This has shooto❀ut written all over it.
Best Bet: Over 70.5 (FanDuel)