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Who benefits when Republican candidates drop out of the 2024 race?
With a little more than seven weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP presidential field has narrowed considerably after former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) suspended their campaigns.
ꦆAs the field consolidates, s☂ome candidates stand to benefit more than others.
A recent used an algorithm and second-choice pollཧing data to project where voters may tur🦩n after their No. 1 pick drops out.
“[Nikki] Haley’s the biggest beneficiary but [Ron] DeSantis is pretty close behind,” RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips told The Post of the effect caused by Pence and DeSantis’ departure from the race.
Here’s a look at where the orphaned support could be going based on data shared with The Post.
Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump is the runaway front-runner in the GOP c𒈔ontest.
Because of that and the fact that many voters who are backing someone else appear to looking for an alternative to the 77-year-old, Trump’s gains from Scott’s and Pence’s exits are projected to be smaller than some of his rivals.
Trump is averaging 47% in Iowa, 45.7% in New Hampshire, 49.3% in S꧋outh Carolina, and 59.4% nationally, according to RealClearPolitics polling aggregates.
From Pence, Trump is estimated to gain 0.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.4 percentage points nationally. In New Hampshire, Pence dropping out has no effect on the 45th president’s support, per RacetotheWH.
From Scott, Trump is set to gain 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.3 percentage p♈oints in New Hampshire, 0.5 ꦿpercentage points in South Carolina, and 0.2 percentage points nationally.
The biggest opportunity for a Trump boost would come from DeSantis dropping out, with projected gains of 4.2 percentage points in Iowa, 2.8 per🌟centage points in New Hampshire, 3.8 percentage points in South Carolina, and 5.2 percentage points nationally.
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis is averaging 17.3% 📖in Iowa, 7.7% in New Hampshire, 10.5% in South 🍃Carolina, and 14% nationally, according to RCP.
From Pence, DeSantis was projected to accrue 0.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.4 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.7 perce🍒ntage points nationally.
From Scott, the Sunshine State governor was set to pick up 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 1.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.4 percentage points in South Carolin🌠a, and 0.4 percentage points nationally.
If Haley were to drop out, DeSantis could be exp🎐ected to gain 3.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.7 percentage points in South Carolina, a🌠nd 1.5 percentage points nationally.
Nikki Haley
Haley is averaging 14.3% in Iowa, 18.7% in New Hampshi๊re, 18.8% in South Carolina, and 10.6% nationally, 🐼according to the RCP aggregates.
From Pence supporters, she was estimated to pick up 1.2 percentage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.2 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.7 percentage point꧋s nationally.
Haley also appears to benefit the most from Scott’s exit, picking up 2.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.8 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.2 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.5 percentage points nationally.
Should DeSantไis suspend his campaign, Haley would be poised to gain 6.2 percentage points in Iowa, 3.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 4.5 percen🤡tage points in South Carolina, and 2.5 percentage points nationally.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is averaging 5% in Iowa, 7% in New Hamp𒀰shire, 3% in South Carolina, and 4.7% nationally, per RCP.
From Pence, Ramaswamy was projected to accrue just 0.1 percentage point of additional support in New Hampshire, and 0.7 percentage points national♑ly, with no benefit in Iowa. A pro📖jection for South Carolina was not given.
From Scott, the youngest contender in the race was set to pick up 1ꩲ percentage point in Iowa, 1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.5 𝄹percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.3 percentage points nationally.
Trump stands the most to gain if Ramaswamy drops out, with the former president projected to pick up 1.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.5 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.꧂5 percentage points in South Carolina, and 1.4 percentage points nationally.
Chris Christie
The former New Jersey governor is averaging 4% in Iowa, 11.3% in New Hampshire — where he’s focused his campaign — 3% in South Carolina, and 2.4% nationally.
From Pence, Christie stood to gain 0.8𝔍 perc♊entage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, and 0.5 percentage points nationally. South Carolina data was not provided.
With Scott dropping out, Christie sees no ౠbenefit in Iowa and gains of just 0.1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.3 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.3 percentage points nationally.
If Christie were to drop out, Haley would likely be the biggest benefactor, set to gain 0.4 percentage poin꧃ts in Iowa, 4.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.5 p🐎ercentage points in South Carolina, and 0.9 percentage points nationally.
Is Trump beatable?
Based on available polling data, even if Trump’s rivals were to drop out and consolidate behind one alternative, that contender would face a steep climb to dethrone the front-runner.
Phillips believes that there is a possible, if 💦improbable, pathway for a candidate to pull that off.
“There’s a group that is 100% Trump …There’s a group, that’s around 20% of the party, that’s 100% no Trump — for the primary anyway. And then the rest are people that are very open to Trump,” he said.
“On paper, DeSantis is better positioned to do that,” Phillips added. “On paper, in head-to-head polling, he’s doing better than Haley, but you could also say DeSantis has had his moment.”
Perhaps the best case scenario for either DeSantis or Haley wo🧔uld involve a three-way race with Trump and Ramaswamy, Phillips guessed.
“[If] Vivek gets just enough to be taking like 10% support away and maybe hold Trump’s numbers under 50%, there’s a scenario he denies him a bit of delegates.”
