The 2024 Australian Open final between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev🍎 is a c🌊lassic handicapping conundrum.
Sinner, 22, has hardly put a foot wrong and is coming off a career-defining꧑ victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
The red-hꦺeaded Italian has dropped just one set in his first six matches and has won 86 of his 88 (98 percent) service games Down U🐷nder.
He looks unbeatable in the same way that vintage Rafael Nadal loဣoked in some of his most dominant French Open performances.
ꦬHowever, this is Sinner’s first appearance in a Grand S🅘lam final and he’s taking on an opponent who makes it practically impossible to game plan.
Medvedev, 27, has had a very𝐆 different path to the finals c♛ompared to Sinner.
The affable Russian dropped his first set of the tournament, erased a two-𝄹set deficit in Round 2 and then had to do it again in a five-set thriller against Alexader Zverev in an unforgettable semifinal victory.
It was the third time Medvedev needed to go the distance in 𒉰his last five matches.
And w🃏hile Sinner has a clear edge in terms of fitness — he’s spent nearly seven fewer hours on the court compared to Medvedev — you almost feel like you can throw that edge out the window because of Medvedev’s out-of-this-world mental game. No player thrives at outwitting his opponent more than the Moscow native.
Whic🐟h brings us back to the conundrum at play for punters. Sinner is clearly deserving of his status as a favorite for Sunday’s final (3:30 a.m. Eastern) based on form and freshness, but it’s hard to quantify just how good Medvedev is in these situations.
His court coverage gives him a chance against Sinner’s serve and he’s got a clear experience edge as a fꦅormer Grand Slam winner playing in his sixth final.
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At these prices I’m happy to ride with Medvedev and trust that his cleverness will be enough to overcome th🅺e fatigue factor.
The play: Medvedev +220