Perhaps the week’s most significant college basketball game ℱoccurs Wednesday night in Auburn, Ala., as No. 12 Auburn hosts in-state rival No. 16 Alabama for a monster SEC matchu🐽p.
It’s otherwise known as the Iron Bowl.
As it stands, Alabama sits atop🧜 the SEC standings at 8-1, whil♛e Auburn sits in third, a game behind at 7-2.
South Carolina is 8-2, while Tennessee is 6-2, so this game could shake up the t𒆙op of the league.
Even more critical, both squads are projected as potential top-four NCAA tournament seeds by BracketMatrix.
The predictive analytics rate both highly, as Auburn ranks fifth in KenPom’s efficiency ratings while Alabama ranks se🤪venth.൩
The game has wide-ranging implications, from SEC๊ standings to predictive analytics ratings to tournament seeding.
Let’s discuss why I’m laying the ✅points with Auburn.
Alabama vs. Auburn odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Auburn | +4.5 (-102) -4.5 (-120) | +172 -210 | o163.5 (-110) u163.5 (-110) |
Alabama vs Auburn prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
The Tide downed Auburn in Tuscaloosa a few weeks ✤ago, 79-75, but that game needs a deeper dive.
Alabama shot 11-for-30 from 3 (37%), while the Tigers shot 5-for-25 (20%), so the form🐽er saw some good shooting luck.
The situational spot heavily favored Alabama, as the Tide were in a prime bounce-back spot off a loss, whi🐈le the Tigers were due for a loss after winning five 🌠consecutive SEC games.
Add it together and A☂labama was always goi⛎ng to win that game.
But in a revenge spot in Auburn, the Tigers s❀hꩵould see more favorable shooting luck and a higher focus level.
Meanwhi꧋le, Alabama is a tad overvalued and due for a loss after 10 wins in 11 tries.
So, I’m betting Auburn leverages the situation to a significant home 🍸victor✨y.
From a more general schematic perspective, I still like Aubur𝐆n.
This game is strength-on-strength, as Alabama ranks first in SEC play in 2-point and 3-point shooting, while Auburn ranks first in 2-point and 3-point shooting al𓆉lowed.
But digging a little deeper, Auburn has advantages in a few are▨as. 🔥;
Nate Oats’ offensive coaching philosophy hinges on pace and Rim-and-3 shooting. But Auburn is an elite transition denial defense (0.92 PPP allowed, top 40 nationally) that ranks top 120 nationally in 3-point rate allowed (35🐓%) and top 40 in paint points per game allowed (27).
Bruce Pearl boasts elite rim protectors in Johni Broome (10% block rate, 19th nationally) and Jaylin Williams, and he leverages them by trusting them on t🌞he interior and sending his perimeter defenders on all-out ball-screen attacks. ;
Aggressive ball-screen defense should prove problematic for Alabama point guard Mark Sears. Auburn presses half-court ball ha🀅ndlers at one of the highest rates nationally, and the Tide rank 348th in PPP against press coverage (0.69), turning the ball over a few too many times (19%, 13th among SEC te🐽ams in conference play).
In the prior matchup, Alabama scored only 12 points on 23 pick-and-roll actions against Auburn (0.52 PPP), only winning because the Tide shot 37% fro🐭m deep, which should regr🐲ess on the road.
I don’t see Alabama getting Oats-ball going, as Auburn will deny it in transition, in b🧔all-screens, from the perꦫimeter and at the rim.
On the other end of the court, Auburn is a cut-heavy offense that scores almost primarily at the rim, generatཧing a whopping 36 paint points 🌌per game, ranking in the 88th percentile among D-I offenses.
Meanwhile, Alabama is among the worst college hoops defenses against cutters (1.33 PPP allowed, 338th nationally)ꦏ, and the Tide are closer to the D-I average as a rim defense (31 paint points per꧃ game allowed, 173rd; 1.12 at-the-rim PPP allowed, 136th).
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In the last matchup, Broome obliterated Alabama’s opposing big men by scoring 25 points, snagging 14 boards and blocking five sᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚhots in 33 minutes. But he got into some foul trouble, whiꦅch ultimately limited his production.
However, ൲I e𒁏xpect he and the Auburn bigs to dominate the interior on both ends of the court in the rematch. ;
The solid schematic😼 matchup should play out better in more favorable conditions, so I’m betting Auburn leverages it into a big home win, clawing its way back to the top of the SEC standings (at least for now).
Alabama vs. Auburn pick
Auburn -4.5 (-120) at FanDuel | Play to -5 (-110)