It didn’t t🅰ake long to find our first winner of the season.
While Scottie Scheffler was the overwhelming favorite last week, we shouldn’t scoff at a +650 win (+950 if you used our recommended boost on DraftKings).
We’ll try to keep that momentum going this week at The Players Chꦉampionship.𒁏
While this is no longer considered the fifth major, it is still the biggest tournament in the early portion of the golf schedule as the flagship event o♓f t🏅he PGA Tour.
TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., is one of the most icon🌟ic courses in the world. The 17th hole might be the most iconic in professional golf.
I was lucky enough to p🦄lay the course a few years ago and hit the hole’s island green – on my third attempt, but it stiꦦll counts.
🐠Designed by Pete Dye, TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 that measures 7,275 yards. It is a course where all types of golfers can contend.
Dye’s ওcourses tend to negate power off the tee. The average driving distance at this🐼 event last year was only 284 yards – one of the lowest marks on tour.
The course has a combination of holes with doglegs and others that force layups. With thick rough and water hazards lurking everywhere, it’s important to💃 keep the ball in the short grass. Thꦦis is one of the rare weeks where accuracy is more important than distance.
The greens are small (5,500 square feet) and difficult to hit on average (59% GIR൲ rate in 2023). TPC Sawgrass keeps the emphasis on approach play.
With respect to yardage, 40% of approach shots will come from inside 150 yards and 25% will c🃏ome from at least 200 yards. This means golf♒ers will have a lot of shots off wedges and long iron shots this week.
A tidy short game is needed when golfers miss greens, which happens quite often at Sawgrass, espꦐecially when the wind picks up.
This is a course where birdiꦐes and big 👍numbers will be made in bunches.
In general, the more water hazards there are on a course, the more 𓄧variance increases. This helps explain why course history has not been predictive here over the year🧔s. You’ll notice that most of the golfers in the field have very mixed course history.
For this week, I’m lookꩵing for golfers who fit the course well, have had success in Florida and ones who have a good track record in strong fields.
I have four outright bets on my card this week. Let’s dive into theꦫ picks.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
The Players Championship best bets
Xander Schauffele 20/1
Schauffele is not a popular pick in t🍸he betting community. He often gets labeled as a golfer who never wins, even though he has seven victories on the PGA Tour.
He haꦿsn’t won since 2022 (when he won back-to-back events), but has been a top-10 machine ever since. He already has four top-10 finishes this year.
If a golfer is in contention enough, he’s eventually going to break through with🐻 a win.&𒈔nbsp;
Capable of scoring in every strokes-gained category, Schauffele doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He finished꧙ second at The Players in 2018. I’m betting he’ll be in the mix Sunday.
Viktor Hovland 22/1
Hovland has not been in the best ♈of form this season. His ball-striking hasn’t been as c🎃risp and he’s back to struggling around the greens.
While not ideal, he’s still one o🃏f the best 𒊎ball-strikers in the field. More importantly, he’s one of the best in the world on the four Florida courses and has back-to-back top-10 finishes at The Players.
If he’sജ able to have a ceiling week with his ball-striking, he won’t need to scramble very often.
The bad form has led to a🌱 bigger number in the outright marke🐓t, as he would likely be in the +1500 range if he was playing a little better heading into the week.
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Russell Henley 45/1
In a year ꦜof lonജg-shot winners, it’s not crazy to think Henley could contend this week.
TPC Sawgrass requires accuracy off the tee and elite iron pla✅y. Those are the exac🐼t strengths of Henley’s game.
He’s coming off a T-4 finish last week at Bay Hill (which wasn’t a great course fit for him) and he’s finished in the top 20 🤡at this event in each of the last two years.
He🎃’s always had good hands around the gre𓃲en and he’s been putting well in 2024.
Tommy Fleetwood 45/1
Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tour.▨ He also put a 10 on the scorecard last w🙈eek at Bay Hill.
Prior t𒈔o that, however, he was in excellent form and even picked up a win in Dubai earlier this year.
He’s a goꦓod total driver of the ball, he’s always been an excellent iron player, and he has an elite short game.&💜nbsp;
It’s easy to see why he’s been able to play so well in Floridﷺa in his career.