While there wasnât a collapse on Sunday like there was at The Players Championship the week beđ§¸fore, it was sâtill a frustrating week.
After Fridayâs round at the Valspar Chđ ampiođŹnship last week, the two biggest live favorites were Justin Thomas and Lucas Glover, who were both on my betting card.
They were paired together on ęŚSaturday and it was an absolute mess. They combined to shoot 8-over par and lost nearly 10 strokes putting between the two of them.
Weđâll look to bounce back at this weekâs Texas Childrenâs Houston Open.&nbâsp;
This will be the fourthঠtime on the PGA Tour that the Memorial Park Golf Course has hosted an event, but only the first time it willâ serve as a host in the spring, as the previous three editions were all played in the fall.
There shouldnât be a big change in how the course plays, but the đgreens have poa trivialis overseed this time of year rather than pure bermudagrass.
Measuring 7,430 yards, the course is a unique par-70 because it features three par-5s and three par-3s; most par-70 courses have two đ5s and two 3s.
đŚMost of the courses that we see on the PGA Tour are private clubs, but this is a municipal golf course, with nearly 60,000 rounds of golf played there annually.
There are only 21 bunkers on the property, which is extremely low compared to most venues. The lack of bunkering makes the course easier for amateurs and more difficult for professionals, who would much prefer to be in the buâ nker than the rough around the green.
Instead of bunkers, the greens feature closely mowed run-off aáŚreas that will create a lot of tight-lie chip shots.
The fairways are standard in width yet are tough to hit on average. Tđhe greenđ§s are quite large but also difficult to hit on average.
With the length of the course, the thickness of the rough and the trickiness around the green, this course has played as one of the toughest non-majoꊲrs on the PGA Tour.
As we often see on difficult courses, a strong tee-to-green game is required to đźcontend. That certainlyঠfits the mold of past winners here, including Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz.
As you will see with my betting card, Iâm willing to take a chance on poor puttđers this week.
Houston Open outright picks
Will Zalatoris +2000
The big stođry of the outright market this week is that Scottie Scheffler is +275. Heâs the best golfer in the world, heâs the class of the field, and heâs coming off back-to-back wins.
Itâs scary fading Scheffler, but I canât ęŚbring myself to bet on a golfer to win a full-field event at those odds.
Instead, Iâm starting my betting đcard with another golfer, Zalatoris, who lives in Texas.
Zađlatoris missed the cut at The Players but finished fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and second đšat the Genesis Invitational in his previous two starts.
Thađ´nks to his strong tee-to-green game and cođurse management, heâs one of the best in the field on difficult golf venues, and he has quietly gained at least 1.3 strokes putting in three of his last four starts.
Stephan Jaeger +5000
Jaeger has found himself in contention a number of times oveáŚr the last 18 months, but he can never seem to cross the finish line on Sunday.
However, Iâm more concerned about geđtting my golfers into the mix than them crossing the finish line.
Jaeger is one of the best ball-strikers in the field and âis elite around the green.đĽ
It all comes down to the putter, butđ again, Iâm more willing to bet on bad putters on diffđicult golf courses.
In his two appearances at this event, he has finishedྊ T9 (2022) and T35 (2021).
Doug Ghim +7000
Ghim was a letdown on the weekend đšat the Valspar Championship, but at least he made the cut.
Before last week, he had reeled together five straight top-20 finishes, and during that stretch, he gained more than 20 strokeꌥs ball-striking.
Over the last 24 rounds, heâs eighth in this field in ball-striking and sixth in strokesđ° gained tee to green.
The putter is always a wild card with Ghim, but itâs worth noting that he has gained at least 1.1 strokes with the fđ§latstick in four of his last six starts.
His game has beenđ solid all year and +7000 odds to win are awfully enticing in thiđźs weak field.
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Joel Dahmen +9000
I had to round out my betting cađrd with another longshot whoâs an excellent ball-striker. Over his lęŚast two starts, Dahmen has gained 10.0 strokes and 9.2 strokes ball-striking.
For reference, only Scheffler has better ball-stđriking numbers over the laཧst eight rounds.
If we ignore Dahmenâs rđecent short-game blunders, how do we not like him at +9ęŚ000?
Heâs won on the PGA Tour before and seems to love this course, with back-to-back topđ-10 finishes.
Heâs worth a sprinkle at these odds.