Stephan Jaeger was able to outlast everyone at the Houston Open to help us claim our first big outright win (+5000) of the year.Ā
He didnāt exaź©µctly ź¦go out and win it, but he made very few mistakes and caught some breaks on the back nine.
I thought he was toast once Scottie Schefflāer hit it to five feet on the 18th hole, but the golferās cold putter finally worked in my favor for once.Ā
Betting outrights onā requires a lot of patience.
We arenāt going to hit winners every week or even every month, but we only need to hit a few to make the entš¹ire year profitable.
Letās try to carry some of lasšt weekās momentum into the Valero Texas Open, which kicks off Thursday in San Antonio.
Valero Texas Open course breakdown
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) is a par-72 that measures 7,438 yards and features narrowš¤Ŗ fairways that are lined with tą¶£rees and thick rough.
While distance is a big advantage on the par-5s, the course is more about total driāving than pure power.
If you stray too far offline, you can get into some real trouble (Kevin Na once made a score of 16 on a single holeš at this event).
Weāve seen sš²everal shorter hitters hšŖave success here over the years.
This doesnāt mean the bombers canāt play well thisÜ« week, but they will need to hit it straight.
The greens are average in size (6,400 square feet) and are tiered. Golfers will need to be dialed in with their irons in order to give themš¬selves good birdie lź¦ooks.
The greens featureš bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed (the same type of grass weāve seen the last few weeks on PGA Tour stops).
In 2023, the field hit just 61 percent of greens in regulationź¦¬, which is well below the Tour average. This places an emphasis on around-the-green play.
Weāve seen plenty of good scramblers (Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedekešr, etc.) play well at TPC San Antonio over the yearsš„.
As is alšways the case in Texas, the wind will play a big factor this week. Light wiš nds on Thursday are expected to turn to moderate by mid-morning Friday and stay throughout the weekend.
When it comes to the betting board this week, Iām looking for golfers who are very solid, tee to grešen and have a good track record in Texas.Ā
Letās try to add to the bankroll before the Masters next week.&nbsšp;
Valero Texas Open outright picks
Billy Horschel (35/1, DraftKings)
Horschel is one of the streakiest golfers on the PGA Tour. His wins are usually telegraphed by solid incoming form. Iām hoping thatās the case again this week, as heās finished T12 or better in three š³of his last four stā±arts.
After last weekās top-10 finish where he had the low round of the day on Easter Sunday, he mentioned something aboušt the lie in his irons being off and that his swing feels a lot better now that it is fixed.
The results certainly seem to back up what he said, as heās coming offš three of his best approach performances in the last 12 months.
Heās one of the best iź©µn the field when it comes to hitting greens in regulation and heās finished T11 or better in four of his last seven trips to TPC San Anštonio.
Byeong Hun An (40/1, Bet365)
If šøI could only make one bet this week, it wouldą¹ be on An.
He has quietly posted five į¦top-eight finishes in his last 13 starts on the PGA Tour. During that stretch, heās been in contention four times.&nbź§sp;
I would argue he should have won earlier this year at the Sony Open, but he had some bad putting luck in a playļ·ŗoff against Grayson Murray.
An is elite off the tee and around tÜ«he greens. He can have spike weeks with his irons and with his putter, whichš gives him a ton of upside.
He also seems to like TPC San Antonio, where heź©µās finished in the top 10 in two of his last three appearances at this event.
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Aaron Rai (65/1, Caesars)
Raiās odds are too goošd to pass up this week.
For whatever reason, he seems to love playing in Texasź¦. He has an excellent track record at Memorial Park (T7 there last week) and heās finished in the top 30 at this weekās event in both of his appearances.
Perhaps he likes the Lone Star State because ball strikers tend to play well āin the wind. Heās accurate off the tee, heās an elite iron player and heās underrated around the green.Ā
The putter is alwšÆays a wild card for Rai, but Iām willing to give him a chance at +6600.
Lucas Glover (90/1, FanDuel)
Gloveār is another poor putter who has made my outright betting card for the week because he has long been known as one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour.
Recently, he has gained strokes putting inź¦ six of his last seven starts. The putter can be awful at times, but he proved in the fall that heās capable of gaining strokes on the greens, winning back-to-back events.
He has a solid track record at TPC San Antonio and in Texas as a whole. My model has him as the best value on the betting boardš¦© this week.