After a shocking home defeat to the Heat in Game 2, the Celtics took care of business on the road with back-to-back wins to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven first-round series.
Boston returns home for Game 5, but it’ll be without a critical piece as center Kristaps Porzingis will miss some time with a calf injury.
But given its moun🥀ting injuries, don’t expect Miami to feel too sorry for the Celtics.
Heat guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. didn’t even travel with the team to Boston, as he joins 💖Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier on the inactive list.
Nonetheless,🙈 the betting market is siding with Miamꩲi, betting the spread down to 14 since it opened at 15.5.
Can the Heat rediscover the form 🐟that led to an impressive p༒erformance in Game 2? Let’s take a look.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | +14 (-110) | +700 | o200 (-110) |
| Celtics | -14 (-110) | -1100 | u200 (-110) |
Heat analysis
Erik Spoe𓆏lstra ൲knew his team had to try something different following a 20-point loss in Game 1.
As a result, he implored his players to be mucౠh more aggressive offensively from the🥃 perimeter to have a better chance at keeping pace with the Celtics.
The strategy 🎐paid off as Miami hit 23 3-pointers, setting a 🐼team playoff record.
Replicat𓆉ing that type of performance would always be difficult in Game 3, especially with Celtics likely to make adjustmen🌃ts of their own (more on that later).
Spoelstra essentially played the one card he kept uꦡp his sleeve just two games into the 💫series.
Perhaps the thougꩵht was that Miami could steal a game early on to avoid f🔯acing a massive deficit until it gets some injured players back in the lineup. However, Rozier has been ruled out again, with Jaquez joining him.
Miami is now without three double-digit scorers, which might simply be too much of a hurdle🍌 to 🍨overcome.
Celtics analysis
Boston couldn’t adjust quickly enough after recognizing Miami’s change in str😼ategy for Game 2.
Joe Mazzullaও seemed to give his players the benefit of the doubt regarding their perimeter defense.
“I thought most of those [Miami’s 3-poin♎ters] were moderately to heavily contested,” the Celtic𝄹s coach told reporters.
Boston’s game plan was to sag off Miami on the perimeter and take away the driving lanes. If a Heat player had a clear look, it was probably by 🉐design based💮 on whom the Celtics wanted to leave open.
The only problem: Those players converted their open shots as Jaquez, Nikola Jovic and Haywood Highsmith each hit three 3-pointers, while Caleb Martin knocked in five. All four combined to average just 6.4 3-poinꩲters during the regular season.
In Games 3 and 4, Boston instead opted for a hard closeout o𓄧n the perimeter, limiting Miami to 18-of-61 (29.5%) shooting. 🃏;
As a result, the Celtics ran Miami off the perimeter, as the Heat attempted 30.5 3-poinꦅters over the two g🌟ames compared to 43 in Game 2.
Heat vs. Celtics pick
Although the pace in this series🌸 suits Miami more, all three of its losses have been by d🙈ouble digits.
In addition to an increased defensive effort on theജ periꦚmeter, Boston is forcing Miami into turnovers. In the last two games, Miami’s 27 giveaways led to 44 points for the Celtics.
Boston is especially hounding point guard Tyler Herro, who committed nine turnovers in Games 3 and 4. With Jaquez, Butler and Rozier out, there’s no one else to turn to.
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While laying �𓃲�the 14 points with Boston feels a bit steep, a better play would be to target the Celtics in the first half at -7.5.
According to our , playoff home favorites in🐲 this price range (-7.5 to -8.5) coming off a ⛦two-game winning streak are 3-0 against the first-half spread.
The Celtics were caught playing with their food in Game 2. When they return to TD Garden on Wednesday night🌳, don’t expect any surprises this time🍰.