Donald Trump’s first election redrew the map of American politics — suddenly Pennsylvania and Michigan were in the Republiꦛcan column for the f💫irst time since the 1980s.
But they didn’t stay there: The Rust Belt states that made Trump president in 20🌸16 sent Joe Biden to the White House in 2020.
That second Trump election also redrew the map, this time forfeiting two Sun Belt states that ha🔯d been Republicaꦰn for decades, Arizona and Georgia, to the Democrat.
Which map will Trump draw this time?
Polls show him ahead in the Sun Belt and Rust🧜 B🌄elt alike, and indications that black and Hispanic voters are trending Trump’s way have Republicans giddy.
Will this election upend political demographics tꦕhe way the last two shook up electoral geography?
The prospect is real — but Trump’s experience in 2020 conta൩in🎃s a warning.
He can’t afford to be complacent about the Rust Belt, no matter how dazzlin💛g the Sun Belt and its demographics seem today.
Ye▨t it’s hard not to look ๊on the bright side.
Trump is up five points in Arizona according to a ♛CBS Newไs poll released Sunday.
That fits with the six-point lead the latest New York Times/Sie🉐na poll found a week before.
Even more encouraging, the same NYT/Siena survey showed Trump up 13 points over Biden in Nevada, a stꩲate Republicans haven’t won in a presidential ꦡcontest since 2004.
Georgia, too, is going red — no poll has shown a lead for the Democrat there since the Trump-Biden rematch got b💮ooked.
After four dour years of continual crises abroad and infl💫ation at home, does sunshine now remind voters of Trump?
Two of Biden’s weaknesses are a special source of the Republican’s Sun Bel🌳t strength.
First, the incumbent can’t evade the blame for the mess on the southern borde🔯r and his administration’s inability, or brazen unwillingness, to control immigration.
Arizona’s electorate is acutely conscious of the border situation, of c👍ourse, but immigration is an urgent issue in Nevada and Georgia as well.
Georgia even recently passed legislation to crack down on local officials who shirk their duty to enforce immigration🦄 law.
Second, contrary to progressives’ expectations, the eth𒅌nic diversity of these Sun Belt states is starting to work to Trump’s advantage.
Black and Latino voters are defecting from Biden in droves, according to repeated rounds of NYT/Siena pollingꦕ, which most🐭 recently found Trump virtually even with the Democrat among Hispanics.
Trump has a long way to go before he can equal Biden with black voters, but for the incumbent to lose🐷 any support with a constituency ಞthat voted 92% for him in 2020 is a fire alarm.
Biden’s worried enough that he’s made repeated appearances bef෴ore black audiences — including a commencement address at the historically black Morehouse Cཧollege on Sunday — occasions to sell himself hard to voters he would normally count on.
Even at Morehouse,🗹 the president was dogged by divisions his policies toward Israe💧l cause in his own coalition.
Before Biden s🍸poke, the graduating class’s valedictorian, DeAngelo Fletcher, drew applause for demanding “an immediate and perma𒐪nent cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.”
When Biden took the st꧙age, some of the class turned their backs or walk♛ed out.
The crackup of the Democratic coalition doesn’t automaticall⛦y put Trump ⛄back in the White House, however.
If he sweeps Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, the R🔥epublican still w📖on’t have the Electoral College votes he needs.
Trump wou༺ld a⛦lso have to flip at least one more state.
The Rust Belt bat𝄹tlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvani🌱a and Wisconsin are his best prospects.
In💖 these states, the white vote will likely decide the outcome.
Trump lost ground witꦛh whites nationwide in 2020, a fact that’s drawn less attention than Biden’s troublꦇes with blacks and Latinos.
According to a June 2021 Pew analysis, in 2020 Biden ﷽drastically cut into Trump’s support among suburban white voters compared to 2016, narrowing the Republican’s lead with them from a commanding 16% 𒅌margin down to just 4%.
Even among whites without college degrees — a core componenඣt of Trump’s base — Biden made gains relative to Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016, raising the Democrat share of non-college whites from 28% to 33%.
Because white voters nationally are still a majority, these declines in hi🍬s 2020 white support were fatal to Trump’s re-election, more than counterbalancing gains with Hispanics.
And whites make up a larger majority in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin than they do in the country at large.ꩲ
Trump should do everything he can to win the Sun Belt, and black and Hispanic voters, away fro▨m Biden.
But his priority must be to win back the๊ Rust Belt states — and the white voters he lost in 2020.
The Rust Belt map Trump drew in 2016 is sti🎃ll the one that leads to victory.