We’ve h🍷it a couple of winners recently, so hopefully we can get back on track at the John Deere Classic following a week where we didn’t have a single sweat heading into the final rounds.
TPC Deere Run is an attackable par-71 t🏅hat measures 7,289 yards.
The winning score at the coursဣe has been at least 19-under par in each of the last five years.
Durin🦩g that stretch, it has ranked 3﷽8th, 34th, 41st, 35th and 46th in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour, making it one of the easiest courses in the rotation each year.
The fairways are wide (35 yards) and easy to hit (64 percent driving 🌺accuracy last year🌌).
The course is short enough that you don’t have to be a bomber 🐬to contend. We’ve seen a nice mix of bombers and plodders win here over the years.
The greens are sm💙all in size (5,500) but very easy to hit (72 percent in re🍸gulation in 2023).
When everyone is hitting greens regularly, it often comes down to an💟 approach and putting contest.
In terms of approach shots, there will be a lot of wedges hit this week. Nearly 45 percent of approach shots ca๊me from inside 150 yar🧔ds last year.
This helps explain why t𒁏here are so many birdies at this event, as profess▨ionals are so dialed in with their wedges.
ꦍWhile making birdies is important, avoidi🌜ng bogeys could be the key to victory this week.
When you make bogeys at a birdie-friendly course, it often feels like you are giving awaܫy multiple shots to 🥀the field.
My key statistics for the week: total driving, strokes gained approach, strokes gained putting and bogey a🌼voidance. Here are my best bets for the John Deere Classic:
Maverick McNealy to win (28/1, FanDuel)
While McNealy didn’t have a great week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he did manage to bounce back ౠand make the cut after a rough start.
He’s gained at ℱleast 1.6 strokes on approach in four of his last six starts.
If ꦰyou look at his statistics this season, he has routinely gained str💯okes off the tee, around the green and putting.
A hot putter is often needed to 𒐪win these birdie-fests and McNealy has gained more than four strokes putting in three of his last 10 events.
He’s only played this event twice in the last fiv🦩e years but finished T8 and T18ﷺ.
This is a very fair outright🧔 number given 🌠the lack of talent in this week’s field.
J.T. Poston to win (35/1, DraftKings)
ಌIt’s extremely difficult to lead an event wire-to-wire, but Poston did at this event in 2022.
In his title defense last year, he finished T6.
He’s an accurate driver o📖f the ball, above average with his approach play (especially his wedges), and he’s an elite putter.
It’s 💃easy to see why he’s had so much success here over the last couple of years.
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Ben Griffin to win (70/1, Caesars)
We’ve seen several lo🌼ng-shot winners at this event, so I don’t🧸 mind looking down the outright board a bit this week.
My favorite long sho♚t isཧ Griffin, who should have the perfect skill set for TPC Deere Run.
Compared to the rest of the ꦰfield, he’s elite on approach and on the greens.
He has struggled with consistency this year but finished runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open last month an🎀d has three other top-20 finishes in his last 10 event✃s.
The main concern is th🌞at he’s neveꦑr played this event, but the 70/1 is more than enough to make up for it.