We are into championship weekend at Wimbledon and, according to the odds, it looks like we are on a collision course for a rematch of last yearās āclassic final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Is it as simple as that? Or will either of the underdogs, Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti, be able to causeź¦ an upset?
Carlos Alcaraz (-330) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+260)
Getting back to the Wimbledon semifinals for a second year in a row is an impressiveā feat for defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, but the path to this point has been a lot bumpier than his nearly flawless run in 2023.
Alcaraz was untouchable āon the grass a year ago, winning all 12 matches he played on the surface, culminating with a five-set thriller over Djokovic in the final.
Even more stź¦”unning was that Alcaraz dropped just five sets in those dozen matches.
It would be nearly impossible to replicate that form, but Alcarazās journey to thš e šfinal four has been bumpier than anybody expected.
The Spaniard started the grass swing with aā±n early exit at Queenās Clubš and heās had a couple of hairy moments at the Championships.
Alcaraz cruised through the first two rounds, but heā¤ needed to come back in a five-set thriller against an out-ošf-form Frances Tiafoe and then was not all that convincing against Tommy Paul in a four-set victory.
If Paul had even his B-gameš¬, weād probably be talking about him in this spot instead.
Winning withoutź§ your best stuff is the mark of a champion, but Alcaraz will need to find his level if heās to make it to back-to-back finals because Daniil Medvedev seems like a man on a mission.
Bewilderingly, Medvedev cš§øame into the tournament as a 60/1 outsider to win Wimbledon despite the fact that he made it to one final at a Grand Slam already in 2024 and was a semifinalist here in 2023.
Medvedevās draw was tough and he dią²dnāt set the woršld alight during the clay swing, but it was pretty shocking to see him flying that far under the radar before the fortnight began.
What was evš¦en more confusing was that Medvedevās outright price remained close to 40/1 even after he advanced into the fourth round.
Itās clear that the betting market severeš ly underestimated Medvedev going into the tournament and itās fair to wonder if oddsmakers are continuing to do so given his price against Alcaraz.
The defending champion absolutely deserves to be thšøe favorite on Friday, but Medvedev was brilliant in a five-set victory over world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the qšøuarterfinals and we havenāt really seen Alcaraz at his best yet.
The Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+260, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Novak Djokovic (-690) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+480)
It is not entirely true to say that it is surprising to see Djokovic in the Wimbledon semifinals this year, but there were certainly a lot more people who doubted that the 37-year-old Serb could pull it šoff this time around the block considering his form and the fact that heās one month removed from knee surgery.
But, as heās wont to do, Djokovic has silenced the skeptics with anoź§thā±er deep run.
And he also caught a big break when ļ·ŗAlex de Minaur had to pull out of their quarterfinal clash with an injury.š
Djokovic will have had three full days to rest after his quick, painless victory ošver Holger Rune on Monday.
Known for his clay-court ability, Lorenzo Musetti is certainly a surprising semifinalist, but heās had a relatively easy path with a woeful Tayź¦”lor Fritz as his ošnly true test so far.
A fresh Djokovic should be able to overwhelm the Italian, especially after defeating him at Roland Garš ros ā±in June.
The Bet: Djokovic -2.5 setsĀ (+110, DraftKings)