Kamala Harris is competitive — and then some — with Donald Trump in new poll: Will it last?
Vice President Kamala Harris is already more than competitive with Republican nominee Donald Trump in one new poll, which suggests the Democrats’ decision to dump President Biden and embrace his California understudy as the presumptive nominee is paying off.
In a Reuters poll conducted Monday and Tuesday — in other words, entirely after Biden decided not to run again — Harris leads Trump, 44% to 42%.
That lead is inside the +/- 3% margin of error and tracks with other polling showing the race too close to call even before it was a race. Before Harris became the likely nominee, Reuters tested her against Trump, and both polls also showed a neck-and-neck race when it was just a hypothetical.
More voters think Harris, 59, is “sharp” than they do Trump, with 56% confident in her cognition, while only 49% say the same about the 78-year-old GOP nominee in his third run for the White House. In other positive signs for the veep, 91% of Democrats regard her favorably — and 75% of the Dems polled say that the party should coalesce behind her now.
Another poll released Tuesday likewise shows a too-close-to-call race.
The Marist/NPR survey of 1,309 adults conducted Monday shows Trump up 46% to 45% in a two-person race, while Harris ties him at 42% in a field including other candidates such as Robert Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, Jill Stein and Cornel West.
In the two-way scenario, 89% of Republicans say they back Trump, while 86% of Democrats make the claim regarding Harris. Trump holds his 89% in the expanded field, meanwhile, while Harris can count on a still-respectable 83% of Democrats in the six-way scrum. Trump leads comfortably with independents in any case.
In a seeming nod to these surveys, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted Tuesday that Harris is getting a polling “bump” from a “honeymoon” but suggested the Trump camp has yet to fully respond.
In a memo to media, he wrote that “while the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’s done.”
The Reuters sample follows another positive poll released Tuesday that shows Harris more competitive than late-stage Biden was.
The Florida Atlantic University survey was conducted between July 19 and 21 — the latter being the day Joe Biden renounced plans to run for a second term.
The survey shows a 5-point race between Harris and Trump in a two-way hypothetical battle, with the former president leading 49% to 44% among likely voters. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, Trump leads with 45%, with 39% backing Harris and 9% behind Kennedy.
For context: Biden was a staggering 9 points back (50% to 41%) the last time this pollster was in the field.
“Biden’s declining numbers make this candidate change an opportunity for Democrats to regroup and appeal to voters,” said Luzmarina Garcia, FAU assistant professor of political science . “But reversing Trump and the GOP’s momentum will require swift party consolidation and a robust campaign.”
The data show Democratic likely voters may be normalizing Harris as the presumptive nominee quickly. Inside her own party in a two-way heat, she is supported by 85% of Dems, with 7% backing Trump. Trump has 89% of Republicans in that same scenario, with 6% backing Harris.
Harris also has a slight edge with independent likely voters, 45% to Trump’s 44%.
Harris has other strengths in the two-way battle, leading Trump with black voters (68% to 20%), Hispanic voters (52% to 43%), and white college grads (48% to 44%).
Harris also leads with women, 48% to 45%. With the abortion issue expected to be central to the Democrats’ argument for another term, female voters are a group to watch — especially in the handful of swing states in play.
The poll also considered a scenario with a third-party candidate, which created some flux in results.
Interestingly, when Robert Kennedy Jr. is factored in, Trump leads with women, 45% to 40%, with RFK peeling off 9% of the female vote. Harris loses 9% of Democrats to Kennedy, with just 4% of GOP registered likely voters saying they’ll back him.
The survey also found 38% of registered Democratic voters wish the nomination would be decided through a more open process, saying they want delegates to make the pick — though that may be a moot point given Harris has already amassed enough delegate commitments to win the nomination next month.
“On the whole, there does appear to be a solid base of support for Harris in the Democratic Party,” said Kevin Wagner co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab and professor of political science. “But there is still substantial uncertainty. Some Democratic voters are still looking for another candidate. Harris has time to unify the party before the convention, but she needs to move quickly, or this could potentially spin out of control for the Democrats.”
These polls are both more favorable than a couple of others released this week.
A HarrisX/Forbes poll released Monday (but conducted July 19 through July 21) showed Trump in blowout territory, leading Harris 50% to 41% overall and 51% to 40% among likely voters.
An On Point Politics/SoCal Research national poll conducted Sunday also showed Trump with majority support, leading Harris 51% to 43% as the reality of a change atop the Democratic ticket sunk in.
The FAU survey lines up most closely with a Quinnipiac poll released Monday showing a too-close-to-call race, with Trump up 45% to 41% in a six-way race including minor candidates.
But the Reuters survey will likely be the big polling news of the day, suggesting that after nearly a month of chaos and the unusual spectacle of mainstream media criticizing a Democratic president, the party may have its groove back.
