Swing States 2024
Politics

Donald Trump dominates Kamala Harris in swath of swing-state polls

Despš“€ite mainstream mediaā€™s support in the early days of her fledgling presidentialą¦“ campaign, Kamala Harris still has ground to make up in the battlegrounds against Donald Trump.

Thatā€™s the upshot of a&nbsšŸ¦„p; niāœ¤ne-state survey conducted July 22 to 24 that shows the Republican nominee ahead or tied in all but one state. 

While Harris leads Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41% (with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%), and the two are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each (with 5% to Kennedy),į©šį©šį©šį©šį©šį©šā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©šā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©šā¤ā¤ā¤ā¤į©šš’€±į©šį©šį©š the other numbers go the former presidentā€™s way.

Harris leads Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41%, but the candidates are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each.
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41% ā€” but the candidates are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each. Getty Images

In Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly is getting a hard look as a running mate on the Democrat ticket (with the encouragement of the state party, no less), Trump leads Harris 46% to 43%, with š’€°Kennedy taking 4%.

In Florida, which the vice president’s campaign manager,Ā Jen Oā€™Malley Dillon,Ā sį€£aid wasnā€™t in play when President Biden was the nominee, Trump leads 47% to 39%, with Kennedy mired at 5%.

Last time this pollster sampled Florida, Biden was in the race anšŸŒ³d trailed by 7, so Harris has plenty of work to do to close the gap in a state with nearly 1 million more Republicans than Democrats.

Tļ·½rumpšŸ˜¼ leads by 5 points in Georgia, 47% to 42%, with Kennedy taking 3%. 

In Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was talked up as possibly getting a spot on what would be a historically unprecedented all-female ticket on aš† major-party slate, Trump leads 44% to 41%, with Kennedy at 7% ā€” his best shoź©²wing in any state in this battleground survey.

Nevada is a rešŸølative nail-biter compared with other swing states polled. There, Trump is ahead 45% to 43% over Harris.

Kennedy is still a nuisance here, taking 5Ü«% support.

North Carolina is a 3-point race in Trumpā€™s favor: 46% to 43%, with another 4% backing Kennedy. Gov. Roy Cooper&nbsšŸŒ±p;is under consideration as Harrisā€™ running mate, and he could be a strategic pick in a state Trump carried four yešŸ¦‚ars ago by 1.34% of the vote. 

Trump leads Harris 44% to 41% in Michigan.
Trump leads Harris 44% to 41% in Michigan. Getty Images

In pivotal Pennsylvania, where Gov. Josh Shapiro is yet another DemocšŸ¼ratic gošŸ¬vernor under consideration tošŸ½ be Harrisā€™ running mate, the spread isź¦‰ 46% to 42%.

As šŸ’§in so many of these states, Kennedy is a single-digit spoiler, with 5% support.

If these results are validated in November, it wiš”‰ll be quite a reversal of fortunes for Democrats. Biden won all of šŸ¤”the states polled here in 2020 except Florida and North Carolina.

This time, Trump would also be taking more Democratic votes from the 2020 election thāœ¤an Harris would from the Republican ledger in seven of the states polled ā€” Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigaš’†™n, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Certain issues play to one candidateā€™s strengths over the other’s in this survey. 

Trump is trusted more across the states onź¦¬ the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, national defense and Israelā€™s military operation in Gaza.

Harris gets higher marks on health care, repšŸ’Ÿroductive rights and environmental policy.Ā 

This is only the most recent group of battleground poā™›lls to show a tight race in the swing statšŸ§œes with a slight Trump advantage.

Emerson College polling conducted July 22 and 23 shows Trump ź¦…with marginal leads in Arizona (+5),ź¦‡ Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2).

And just like in the Redfield and WiltonšŸ’œ survey, Emerson has the two candidates išŸ¤Ŗn a dead heat in Wisconsin.