I like betting on Ryne Nelson.
He doesn’t blow▨ you away, but he’s a rock-solid young arm (4.29 ERA, 4.03 xERA, 3.61 F꧟IP, 4.08 xFIP, 2.1 WAR) who gives his team a chance to win.
Considering how good the Diamondbacks🌊෴ are, Arizona has won 11 of Nelson’s 14 starts dating back to the start of June.
The Mets have won 12 of David Peter𝓀son’s 15 starts this season, but I expect th🐟at to change.
He has p��osted a 2.8๊5 ERA, but that’s almost entirely because of an 82 percent strand rate.
As that regresses tꦰoward the league average (72 percent), Peterson shܫould start pitching closer to his expected run indicators (5.28 xERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.41 xFIP).
The Snakes can force regression upon Peterson.
They’re the hottest 💃lineup in baseba🐲ll over the past month (.875 OPS, 141 wRC+) and a top-five lineup against lefties on the year (.769 OPS, 113 wRC+).
While the M𒅌ets are a top-10 lin⛄eup in their own right, they’re not as loaded as the Diamondbacks.
And of greater importance, I give a🌄 considerable bullpen and defensive mat🌄chup to Arizona.
The Diam⛄ondbacks have been the league’s second-best bullpen since adding A.J. Puk to the fold (3.19 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.9 WAR), who has been a crucial left-handed reliever given Joe Mantiply’s struggles.
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Puk has allowed one earned run with 19 strikeouts in 13 innin🔯gs with Arizona.
The Diamondbacks also grade out as a top-ღfive defensive t🌞eam by Defensive Runs Saved (+46) and Outs Above Average (+28).
Conversely, the Mets are average-to-below-average in th♔e bullpen (4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.3 WAR) and on defense (-25 DRS, +1 OAA).
The play: Diamondbacks (-116, Caesars Sportsbook)