Battleground state polls spell great news for Trump campaign — but down-ballot candidates struggle
The latest sw⛦ath of battleground surveys suggests Donald Trump will return to the White House — and swing-state voters will pave the way.
Emerson College polling c🎃onducted between Sept. 15 and 18 in seven electoral battlegrounds finds the former president leads in five and would get 281 electoral votes if this map holds up, pushing him over the winning th🐻reshold of 270 with room to spare.
Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (49% t💮o 48% in both states), Nevada (48.4% to 47.7%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), giving him 62 electoral votes total from the battlegrounds.
Harris is ahead in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigaꦕn (49% to 47%), good for 31 votes from💧 that pair of swing states.
Peᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚr Emerson’s executive director, Spencer Kimball, this is actually a static race with marginal movement since the last round of polling before the presidential debate.
“In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point🥀 in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained 3 points and Harris lost 2,” Kimball said 😼Thursday, contextualizing the numbers.
It’s not all🎐 good news here for Republicans, though.
Despite voters sayin🉐g they’re backing Trump, majorities in each state think Harris will win, with 53% of North Carolinians, 52% of Michiganders, 51% each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and 50% of Nevada voters believing the Democrats will hold the White House no matter how ꦏthey personally vote.
As other polling has shown, Trump’s appeal atop the ticket isn’t helping down the ballꦆot, where Republicans lag behind their party’s standard bearer in major races in every state.
In Arizona, Kari Lake runs 7 points behind Tru♎mp, trailing ♚Democrat Ruben Gallego 42% to 49% in the race for the Senate.
Mike Rogers is also 5 points behind Trump’s pace in the Michigan Senate race: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads♎ 47% to 42%.
Trump’s whisker-thin Nevada lead isn’t saving Sam Brown in the Senate race either; he’s on track to lose to Democratic incumbent Jackꦗy Rosen, 41% to 48%.
Nort🍸h Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has lagged in every poll against Democrat Josh Stein, and thaꦇt’s the case here too, as he trails 40% to 48%.
Likewise, Republican Senate candidates David McCormick of Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde of Wi𒐪sconsin are also running behind Trump’s pace.
McCormick trails incumbent Democrat Bob ✱Casey 42% to 47%, while Hovde trails Tammy Baldwin 46% t🐠o 49%.
