Swing States 2024
 Politics
Swing States 2024

Pennsylvania poll shows Shapiro snub’s harming Harris

By
A.G. Gancarski
Published Sep. 25, 2024, 1:25 p.m. ET

A new survey from pivotal Pennsylvania suggests “Momala” should have picked the state’s favorite son as her running mate.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are knotted up in𝄹 the Keystone S𝐆tate, per the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call of 450 likely voters in the commonwealth.

The survey, in the field from Sept. 16 to 19, shows both candidates at 48%, and it’s right in line with the R🐼ealClearPoli🐷tics polling average in the state, which has Harris up by 0.6%.

Harris passing on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate could be hurting her standing in the state.
Harris passing on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate could be hurting her standing in the state. AP
Vice President Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro speaking to the press at the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia on July 13, 2024
Shapiro (left) became an immediate booster for Vice President Harris after President Biden exited the race in July. AFP via Getty Images

While the vice president leads by 5% with independents polled here, the former pre💮sident is co🅷nverting more Joe Biden voters from four years ago than Harris is from the Tru🐈mp column.&nb💖sp;

Trump is retaining 97% ▨of his 2020 voters and drawing 6% of Biden backers; Harris is at 92% with Biden’s supporters in 2020 and 2% wit💮h Trumpers from the last cycle.

Thes💜e numbers contribute to her underperformance compared with B🌜iden’s 1.17% 2020 win in the state.

And a possible reason could be Harris passing on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate, as he is m♚uch more popular than shꦚe is, with 59% approval against 27% disapproval.

Ironically, that’s down from his April numbers: 64% fav🅘orable, 19% unfavorable.

Previous polling from Emerson College sho🎉wed 40% of Pennsylvania voters wanted Shapiro as Harris’ running mate, which didn’t come to pass, as Harris went with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

The jury is still out on whether Walz has been a boost, even in his home-state.🐲 A recent Minnesota poll shows Harris leads Trump bꦛy just 5 points, which means the race is still competitive down the stretch.

Even as the presidential race in Pennsylvania appears too close to call, this poll suggests Sen. Bob Ca🌺sey has a marginal lead over his Republican challenger, David McCormick.

It’s a 4-point spread at 46% to 42%, with the remain🦂der not sure (7%) or backing another candidate (4%). 

When leaners are factored in, the Democratic incumbent is up 48% to 43%, with 27% of those initially reluctant to choose between the two major candidates going with Casey and just 7% moving to McCormick; 16% still won’t pick either o♓ne, and 50% are not su❀re.

Multiple recent surveys show Casey’s lead narrowing, with a Wash𒆙ington Post poll finding the Democrat just 1 point ahead of the Republican.