The 2024 NFL season has been full of surprises, maybe none greater than Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers getting off to a 3-1 start.
Tampa Bayās passing offense has played a big part in its sucš¼cess, considering that the running game has been slow to get on track.
With the Buccaneers visiting Atlanta on Thursday night, thereās a potentialš the Falcons could be under pressure to put up points on tš¶he board to match Tampa Bay point for point.
Weāll revisit that angle as part of our bet365 three-leg same-game parlay.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | o44 (-110) |
| Falcons | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | u44 (-110) |
Buccaneers vs. Falcons same-game parlay
- Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Kirk Cousins over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
- Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
As a first-half underdog, Mayfield has been one of the mš§ore underrated betting angles over the last few seasons. Accorź¦Æding to the Action Network, the quarterback this season is 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in this spot and 14-6 over the last three seasons.
The former No. 1 overašll pick is coming off a career-high 28 touchdown passes in 2023, prompting Tampa Bay to reward him with a three-yearź§, $100 million deal.
Mayfieldās stellar performance mightāve even persuaded coach Todd Bowles, traditionally very conservative, to be more offensive-minded. However, Bowles might have little choice, considering his rushing attack ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 38.1% success rate, while his team’s pass-play rate ranks 10th at 60.5%.
That aggressiveness should serve them well against an Atlanta defense ranked in the bottom half against the pass in the FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
Kirk Cousins Over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
With the Buccaneers putting the Falcons under pressure to keep pace offensively, it makes sense to target Falš¼cons QB Kirk Cousins to exceed his passing prop of 226.5 yards.
The Falcons will likely struggle running the ball Thursday, with 6-foot-4, 347-pound nose tackle Vita Vea in the middle of the Buccaneers’ line.
Atlanta is only slightly better than Tampa Bay in rush successą½§ rate (38.6%), and its pass play raį¦te of 58.14% is 14th in the league.
Cousins has exceeded this projection in five of his previous six appearances aą¼ŗt home and in his last three games. If you like the Buccaneers in this matchup, thereās a clear path to Cousins going over his pšøassing prop.
Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
This is a standard contrarian play, consiš °dering the Falcons tight end didnāt record a single reception last week for the first time in his NFL career.
Pitts wonāt need to look at the box score to know he finished the game without a catch, and heāll likely be hanging around his quarterback’s locker in search of an explanation.
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He’s recorded at least 31 receiving yards in five of his last eight games after finishing with 15 or fewer. When you couple that with opposing tight ends averaging 33.5 receiving yards against the Bucs, thereās just enough to warrant a play on Pitts going over this prop.
Best bet: Same-game parlay (+425, bet365)
- Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Kirk Cousins over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
- Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. Heās cashed two 15-leg teasers in his bettinš§g career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More š recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.