Donât look now, but the Dð enver Broncos have won three games in a row.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is finding his footing in the NFL, and Vance Josephâs defense haðs been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks.Â
Despite that, we can find Denver at nearly 2/1 oðŠdds to make the playoffs.
The sportsbooks are not buying into this surging Broncos squad and I believe that sets up value on their prðice to make the postseðason.
The Broncos are the focus of my column this week oðŊn the NFL futures betting markets, where odds can change quickly, providing opportunities to find value on the board.
Sean Payton never wanted to coach Russell Wilson, and that muð ch was painfully evident last season as the coach and quarterback never gðot on the same page.
However, Payton handpicked Nix to run his team, and the former Oregon Duck is coming off his best game as a pro. ęĶĄ;
Nix completed 19-of-27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, and he should have had a third score if not for a drop by rookie wideout Troy FranklęĶŦin on what would have been a 45-yard touchdown strike.
Perhaps most importðģantly, Nix hasnât made many mistakes.
Over the last four weeks, he haðs the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFLā―§.
With Nix emergiðng as a real passing threat, defenses havenât been ablðĨe to load the box as frequently, and Denverâs run game is finding its legs.
As a result, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin both rank in the top four in the league in missed tackles forced per attempt this season, per ðPro FęĶootball Focus.
Thatâs more than enough to find success wiðĶth hoāĶw well Denverâs defense is playing.
The Broncos have the third-best defense in the NFL by EPA/play, and Vance Joseph has been in his bag ð this season.
Denver ranks second in the NFL with a 40.1% blitz rate, and it runs more ęĶCover 0 and CoęĶver 1 out of man coverage than just about any team in the league.
Joseph trusts his defensive backs to hold up in one-on-one settings while lettinâg loose with creative blitz packages to keep quarterbacāą ks on their toes.
Itâs especially effective thanks to the brilliant play of cornerback Patrick Surtain II, whose Defensive Player of the Year stock (FanDuelâs fourth-shortest odds ðat 11/1) is quickly rising.
Finally, the Broncos rank second in the NFL in spâecial teams DVOA.
Wil Lutz has made 92.3% of his field goals, and Ben Kotwica has his unit playing complementary āđfootball, providing a significant boost to the offense and defense.
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The Broncosâ upcoming schedule also seemsð ripe for picking up more wins.
Home games against the Chargers and Panthers in the near future are winnable, and a road game against the Saints takes on a different tenor if Derek Carrâs injury is long term.Â
FTN Fâantasy gives Denver a 47.8% chance of making the playoffs, and the +185 price tagðĶ on Caesars carries an implied probability of about 35%.
Thatâs a significant gap thatâs worth buying into.&nâ bsp;
With Payton at the helm, Nix improving by the week and Denverâs defense playing as well as any in the league, buy into the Broncos making the postseason this year (+185, Caesars).
BET: Broncos to make postseason (+185, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.