Swing States 2024
Politics

Trump holds slight leads over Harris in key swing states two weeks from Election Day

(The Center Square) – Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump natio🌼nally in the latest polling, but it may not be enough.

Two weeks out from Election Day, Trump holds a lead over Harris in all seven of the closest swin🐷g 𓆏states, according to , which averages recent polls in those states.

In 2020, Biden won Arizona with its 11 electoral votes, Nevada with its 6 ele🌠ctoral votes, Georgia with its 16 electoral votes, Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, Michigan with its 15 electoral votes and Wisconsin ✨with its 10 electoral votes.

Trump beat Biden in North Carolina in 2020, n🌄abbing 16 electoral ꦰvotes.

This time around, Trump is leading in all seven states, though his lead is l𒈔ess than two points in each state, leaving them all in the “toss-up” category.

If Trump wins all seven o🐎f those states, he will easily win the presidentialꦓ election two short weeks from now.

However, Trump’s lead is small in each state with a flurry of campaign stops and each 🐼state with its own respective issues.

Trumpꦰ leads Harris by an average of 1.8 points in Arizona, where Hispanic voters make up about a third of the state.

Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the stage following a campaign rally at Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum on October 21, 2024 in Greenville, North Carolina.
With Election Day two weeks away, Trump leads Harris in all seven of the closest swing states, according to Real Clear Politics. Getty Images

A USA Today/Suffolk University poll𒁏 released Monday reports that Trump leads Harris with Hispanics, 49% to 38%.

Tho💎se💞 numbers would help Trump in Nevada as well, where RCP has Trump up by 0.8% and Hispanics are nearly a third of the population.

As The Center Square previously reported, Biden received 58🌟% support from Hispanic voters when he beat ꦗTrump in 2020.

Border issues have also become front-of-mind in the southwestern state, which has seen a flood of migrants enter the state as have other states since Vice President Kamala Harris took office.

Harris has done her best to dist🦩ance herself from her work on immigration for the Biden administration, but questions about her as a “border czar” persist, showing that she has not fully broken the connection to her candidacy and the current border crisis.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a town hall at The People's Light in Malvern, Pa., Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.
If Trump wins all seven swing states, he is set to beat Harris and win the presidential election on Nov. 5. AP

Trump’s focus on the border cr💫isis and gains with Hispanics have so far given him an edge in The Grand Canyon State.

In Pennsylvania, Harri𝓀s’ fracking stance has come under scrutiny.

In 2019, ✅she called for banning frꦇacking, but she has since reversed her position.

Now, PoliticoPro is reporting that a top Harris climate staffer has said Harris will not support expanding 💎fracking.

“Kamala Harris continues to lie and twist herself into a pretzel about her positions on energy be♈cause she needs states like Pennsylvania in order to win the White House and her record of failure won’t cut it,” Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of the energy workers’ advocacy group, Power The Future, told The Center Square.

Harris has also struggled with Black voters, according to recent polling, and underperf🐲orming with that demographic could be fatal for her campaign in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina (about 20% Black) and Pennsylvania (about 12% Black)𒊎.

While Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78%-17%, her sup🙈port comes in well under recꦡent Democratic presidential candidates.

In fact, Democrats have traditionally relied on 90-95% support among Black voters, from former President Barack Obam🐓a to 𒊎President Joe Biden.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even lost with more than 90% support from Bla🌱ck voters.

Now, the candidates have a flurry of campaign stops in these key states, hoping to wi♔n over the key counties that could give just enough electoral votes. ;

Harris has continued to call Trump “unstable,” hammering that mess🎐aging online and in interviews.

“The final stretch is always about momentum, and Donald Trump starts the countdown to Election Day with the wind at his back,” Colin Reed, a Republican strategist, former campaign manager for U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and co-founder of South and Hi🐈ll Strategies, told The Center Square.

“It’s getting late in the game for Vice Pꦐresident Harris to answer the question a lot of voters are cr🌠aving, which is a better understanding of her rationale for running and her vision for America.

“Trump, for better or worse, is a known quantity, and that factor, plus his lead on the intangible issues (economy, foreign affairs, immigration) and the desire for a change in direction from the status quo gives him a slight advantage down the f🌺inal stretch,” Reed continued.

In a sign of the tenor and modern state of American politics, bꦜoth candidates have also taken shots at the size of the others’ rallies.

“I have a raꦦlly, I have 100,000 people,” Trump told rallygoers in Noಌrth Carolina Monday.

“They have a rally. They have 200 people.”

On Friday, pro-life pro෴testers interrupted Harris’ Wisconsin rally speech when she began discussing abortion.

“Oh you guys are at the wrong rally. I think you meant to go to the smaller on🅰e down the street,” Harris said.