The Pittsburgh āPanthers are 6-0? Since when?
Theyāve pulled out some wild wins this year behind up-anšd-coming quarterback Eļ·ŗli Holstein and a potent, balanced offensive attack.
But the 5-1 Syracuse Orange are no joke. Their 44-41 win over UNLV was among college footballās best wiš³ns this season.Ā
Read on for my Syracuse vs Pittsburgh predictions and college football best bets for Thursday’s prime-time ACC matchup (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | +5.5 (-110) | +170 | Over 62 (-112) |
| Pitt | -5.5 (-110) | -205 | Under 62 (-108) |
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh prediction
I think the Panthers are due to drop a game. They neeš“ded a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback to down Cincinnati and a 10-point fourth-quarter comebackš to sneak past West Virginia.
The offense was abhorrent last week š§against Cal, where they won in a 17-15 grinder despite running 21 fewer plays and gaining 23 fewer yards.
However, thereās also a lot to like about the Panthers. Theyāre rushing attack is dangerous (fourth in EPA per Rush) behind top back Desmond Reid (496 yards, 6.3 YPC) and Holsteinās dušal-threat ability (350 yards, 7.6 YPš¦©C).
Their front seven has been stout against the rush (10th in EPA per Rush allowed) and they rank top 50 nationally in Havoc and PFFās Pass Rush grades.Ā
But their secondary is a glaring weakness. The cornerź¦s are getting gashed. Ryland Gandy ą¼ŗand Rashad Battle have allowed 37 receptions on 61 targets (61% completion) for nearly 500 yards (8.2 yards per target).
Theyāve been consistently targeted deep downfield, šwith Gandy allowing an 18.7-yard average depth of target. Pitt ranks 120th nationally in EPA per Pass and Passš Explosiveness allowed.
While Syracuseās overaį¦ll resume is up for debate, Kyle McCord is shining in northern New York, ranking among the top 15 qualified FBS quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate. Heš ās already amassed more than 2,100 yards through six games and leads the nation in Big-Time Throws with 21.
Jacksonš Meeks and Trebor Pena have established themselves as half-decent wideouts. Meeks is averaging an explosive 2.5 yards per route run, but itās worth mentioning that Pena is listed as questionable on the injury report.
Tight end Oronde Gadseš¶n is a unit out of the slot ā those McCord-to-Gadsen seam routes remind me of āold Brady-to-Gronk passing concepts.
Syracuseās pro-style offense is cooking, ranking 11th nationally in EPA per Pass and 13th in Pass Success Rate. The Orange should move the ball against šPittās exploitable defensive backfield.
On defense, Syracuse has struggled without linebacker Marlowe Wax. The front seven is weak, so theš Orange hš„ave been bullied on the ground.
Defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson has been doing his best to keep everything in front of him ā the Orange ārank 51st nationally in Explosiveness allowed but 113th in Success Raź¦«te allowed.
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While Pitt should move the ball consistently on š the ground, I think Holsteinās carelessness will come back to bite him. Heās fumbled the ball five times, yet the Panthers have recovered four.
Throw in his 12 turnover-worthy passes to only five interceptions, and the Panthers are due for some majoš °r turnover regression.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh pick
I think the Panthers are overvalued and worth fading. But, at the minimum, McCord and Gadseš °n shoušld move the ball, score often and keep the game close for 60 minutes.
My numbers project Syracuse closer to +4.5 than +5.5, so I’m willing to bet on the Orange at +5 or better.
Best bet: Syracuse +5.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.