Opinion

Hispanic men could tip the election — for Trump: pollster

By
James Johnson
Published Nov. 4, 2024, 1:52 p.m. ET

Raymond Sena, 64, is about to retire from w♋orking for thꦏe city of Phoenix. His parents are Mexican and he has always voted Democratic.

But not this year.

“I kn🔯ow I’m supposed to be pro-opening the border but I’m not,” he says. “They have to come over here legally. It used to be people from Mexico — now it’s China, and Arab. Venezuelans are in El Paso complaining about our food, after we h🌟ave helped them cross. Who the hell do they think they are?”

His words sound angry but his tone is despondent. As he stares into his coffee cup, he tells me about how he has t🍰o watch every dollar. As🌌 he picks carefully and hunts for discounts at the grocery store, he sees illegal immigrants using food vouchers to buy food, shoveling goods into their shopping carts with no regard to the cost.

Raymond Sena sitting at a table, in conversation with NY Post columnist Justin Johnson, taken on November 4, 2024
Raymond Sena, 64, says he sees illegal immigrants using food vouchers to buy food, shoveling goods into their shopping carts with no regard to the cost. Daniel Falvey

“I feel that inside.ꦫ I work hard, 12 a.m., 3 a.m🌌. sometimes. If you want to build a wall, I’m fine with it — as a 100% Mexican.”

I met many more of this grou🌄p — Hispanic men now backing▨ Donald Trump — in my week traveling Arizona, conducting focus groups and one-to-one structured interviews.

This 🏅d🐻emographic may be the one that tips the election, as Hispanics who voted for Hillary Clinton over Trump by 39 points become frustrated with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ open borders.

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Some polls have Harris leading among Hispani🙈cs by only 13 points, an incredible closing of the gap.

Some of these voters are, like Sena, those whose parents came here to pursue the American Dream, who have worked hard for their own place in society — and now see an immigration process that 🐎is unfair and feels like a personal insult to them.

Justin Anaya is another. A 43-year-old musician and second-generation immigrant, he backed Barack Obama enthusiastically and describes his general outlook as De🐟mocratic today: “My body my choice, gay rights, I’m 100% for t🅘hat. But this Biden term has been fricking bad. Immigration is great, but let’s do it the legal way. It’s terrifying what’s happening down there.”

He cites an Afghan national who was arrested for plotting an Election Day terrorist attack. “I don’t have a raci🦋st bone in my body, but a bone I do have i♐s not wanting Americans killed in a terrorist attack.”

Arizona, with its rapidly gr✱owing Hispanic population, is set to be one of the most critical battleground states. Hispanic voters make up about 24% of Arizona’s eligible voting population, and recent polls indicate a notable shift among Hispanic men toward Trump, with recent polling suggesting that more than 45% are leaning Republican and fewer than ever backing the Democrats.

The Democratic candidate has not impܫressed Jamie Razo, a 51-year-old, third-generat𓃲ion Hispanic voter I meet in Laveen Village, a southern suburb of Phoenix.

Jamie Razo speaking to the NY Post columnist Justin Johnson, surrounded by plants on November 4, 2024.
Jamie Razo, 51, is a third-generation Hispanic voter from Laveen Village, a southern suburb of Phoenix. Daniel Falvey

It’s grittier down here, with 🍃rising crime ☂and low-level violence from a growing homelessness problem. Jamie is not quite sold on Trump, but he feels Harris has a habit of “not wanting to be posed with the hard questions.”

I ask him what his biggest hesitation about Harris is, and he fires back three questions: “Is she strong enough?♔ Does she have the stomach? Obama took out bin Laden, would she?”

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The men I meet are not all-out✱ supporters of Trump. Deportations concern them, seen as too harsh and divisive, and Trump’s personality continues to divide.

Raymond s🌱ighs when I ask him for his views on Trump: “He’s a goddamn liar.”

For some Hispanic voters, Trump’s🌸 personality will be too much of a barrier to voting red in a week’s time. Their wives and mothers may stick with the Democrats. As one voter told me, “for every Latino man with a Trump sign outside, there’s a woman inside voting Harris because of abortion.”

But for men like Raymond, their wallet might be enough. If Trump’s policies mean more mඣoney in his pock😼et, he is willing to overlook the former president’s flaws.

Something is turning in this community. “It’s changing,” Raymond tells me as we walk to the parking lot. “They see the same things I see. The Mexican man is🔯 macho. Th𒈔ey see Trump being tough, they go for it.”

James Johnson is co-founder of polling firm J.L. Partners.